17 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Viking vs Fredrikstad Eliteserien prediction & result

Lyse Arena, Stavanger
Referee: Marius Grotta, Norway
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Viking 3-2 Fredrikstad.

Before kick-off the model made it 65% Viking, 22% draw, 13% Fredrikstad — fair odds of 1.54, 4.55 and 7.69.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Viking at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Viking98%Draw2%Fredrikstad0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Simen Kvia Egeskogassist: Peter Christiansen
7'
27'
⚽Bryan Fiabemaassist: Gabriel Wesseh
Joe Bell
36'
40'
⚽Gabriel Wessehassist: Daniel Eid
🔁Niklas Fuglestadout: Zlatko Tripić
45'
🔁Joe Bellout: Henrik Bjørdal
45'
Vetle Auklend
46'
⚽Peter Christiansenassist: Simen Kvia Egeskog
56'
⚽Peter Christiansenassist: Vetle Auklend
57'
🔁Henrik Falchenerout: Jesper Daland
58'
58'
🔁jakub jezierskiout: Henrik Langaas Skogvold
66'
Sondre Sørløkk
66'
🔁Gabriel Wessehout: Fanuel Ghebreyohannes
🔁Vetle Auklendout: Herman Haugen
70'
74'
Daniel Eid
80'
🔁Solomon Owusuout: Leonard Owusu
80'
🔁Samuel Holmout: Johannes Andres Hummelvoll-Nunez
80'
🔁Sondre Sørløkkout: Benjamin Thoresen Faraas
🔁Peter Christiansenout: Jakob Segadal Hansen
89'
Erik Botheim
90+3'

Match stats — Viking vs Fredrikstad

43%Possession57%
12Shots8
4On target2
6Corners0
1.82xG0.49

Goals against chances

Viking3 from 1.82 xGmore than the chances were worth
Fredrikstad2 from 0.49 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Viking 4-3-3
  • 1A. ØstbøG
  • 5H. HeggheimD
  • 6G. StensnessD
  • 25H. FalchenerD
  • 24Vetle AuklendD
  • 29T. MoiM
  • 8J. BellM
  • 26S. Kvia-EgeskogM
  • 23N. FuglestadF
  • 22E. BotheimF
  • 20P. ChristiansenF
Substitutes
  • 17E. BasseyD
  • 30Ľ. BelkoG
  • 16H. BjørdalM
  • 19A. CosicF
  • 27J. DalandD
  • 33J. HansenM
  • 2H. HaugenD
  • 11R. PostemaF
  • 10Z. TripićF
Coach: B. Aarsheim
Fredrikstad 3-4-3
  • 77M. BørsheimG
  • 38I. AmundsenD
  • 4F. HolméD
  • 28S. OwusuD
  • 16D. EidM
  • 6S. Leach HolmM
  • 21J. JezierskiM
  • 13S. SørløkkM
  • 29G. WessehF
  • 18B. FiabemaF
  • 11L. WestF
Substitutes
  • 30J. TorkildsenG
  • 23H. SkogvoldF
  • 5S. RafnD
  • 24L. OwusuM
  • 10J. Hummelvoll-NuñezF
  • 9S. LaghzaouiM
  • 19F. GhebreyohannesD
  • 12U. FredriksenD
  • 7B. ThoresenF
Coach: Casper Röjkjaer

Form going into Viking vs Fredrikstad

Viking

Eliteserien

  • W2-0away to Brann9 October 2026

Fredrikstad

Eliteserien

  • D1-1Tromso11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Viking2620246927+4262
12Fredrikstad2686123146-1530

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Viking vs Fredrikstad

  • 25 April 2026Fredrikstad 1–2 VikingEliteserien
  • 23 November 2025Fredrikstad 0–1 VikingEliteserien
  • 22 June 2025Viking 3–0 FredrikstadEliteserien
  • 1 March 2025Viking 2–0 FredrikstadFriendlies Clubs
  • 22 September 2024Fredrikstad 3–2 VikingEliteserien
  • 21 April 2024Viking 1–1 FredrikstadEliteserien

Leading scorers: Viking and Fredrikstad

Viking

GoalsAssists

  • P. Christiansen187
  • S. Kvia-Egeskog93
  • H. Heggheim73

Fredrikstad

No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Viking beat Fredrikstad 3–2. The model had made a win for Viking its most likely outcome, at 65%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Simen Kvia Egeskog 7' for Viking, Bryan Fiabema 27' for Fredrikstad, Gabriel Wesseh 40' for Fredrikstad, Peter Christiansen 56' for Viking, Peter Christiansen 57' for Viking. On expected goals it finished 1.82–0.49.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Viking a 49.0% chance to finish top of the regular season: 53.3% after a win, 39.5% after a draw, 30.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.3%, 4.3 points higher than before the match.

For Fredrikstad the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 1.4% going in: 4.9% after a win, 1.1% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Viking v Fredrikstad has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 57% / 25% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 65% / 22% / 13%: the biggest move is Viking's chance of winning, up 8 points.

  1. Viking win65%▲ +8
  2. Draw22%▼ −3
  3. Fredrikstad win13%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.