18 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Sandefjord vs Lillestrom Eliteserien prediction & result

Jotun Arena, Sandefjord
Referee: Tore Hansen
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Sandefjord 0-2 Lillestrom.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Sandefjord, 30% draw, 27% Lillestrom — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sandefjord at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sandefjord0%Draw1%Lillestrom99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
⚽Thomas Lehne Olsenassist: Frederik Elkaer
24'
⚽Eric Kitolanoassist: Sturla Ottesen
🔁Elia Hadayaout: Alf Lukas Noel Gronneberg
31'
45'
Felix Vá
59'
🔁Henrik Molvaer Mellandout: Winston Robin Yaw Paintsil
59'
🔁Eric Kitolanoout: Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim
🔁Sebastian Holm Mathisenout: Oscar Forsmo Kapskarmo
62'
🔁Evangelos Patoulidisout: Bendik Slotfeldt Berntsen
62'
🔁Martin Hellanout: Fredrik Carson Pedersen
72'
🔁Gustav Højbjergout: Vetle Walle Egeli
72'
75'
🔁Frederik Elkaerout: Daniel Bassi
75'
🔁Thomas Lehne Olsenout: Fredrik Gulbrandsen
90+1'
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim

Match stats — Sandefjord vs Lillestrom

58%Possession42%
21Shots10
7On target6
4Corners3
1.39xG0.53

Goals against chances

Sandefjord0 from 1.39 xGless than the chances were worth
Lillestrom2 from 0.53 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sandefjord 4-2-3-1
  • 30E. HadayaG
  • 2M. HellanD
  • 13R. HoltenD
  • 44X. LambrixD
  • 5G. HøjbjergD
  • 6S. MørkM
  • 10E. GigovićM
  • 7E. PatoulidisM
  • 14E. PettersenM
  • 27J. DunsbyM
  • 24S. MathisenF
Substitutes
  • 19Bendik BerntsenF
  • 3V. EgeliD
  • 1A. GrønnebergG
  • 9O. KapskarmoF
  • 16H. KrogelienD
  • 4F. PedersenD
  • 32D. SkaarudF
  • 31H. B. SkrettebergD
  • 37J. VesterM
Coach: Andreas Tegström
Lillestrom 4-3-3
  • 12P. DahlbergG
  • 3S. OttesenD
  • 5S. FossD
  • 47S. KristiansenD
  • 11F. ElkærD
  • 29Y. IbrahimajM
  • 21F. OttossonM
  • 16H. MellandM
  • 20VáF
  • 10T. Lehne OlsenF
  • 17E. KitolanoF
Substitutes
  • 28R. GabrielsenD
  • 8F. GulbrandsenF
  • 1S. HagerupG
  • 18K. KrygårdM
  • 15G. NordhF
  • 14G. NyheimF
  • 26Y. PaintsilM
  • 2L. RangerD
  • 22D. BassiF
Coach: H. Ødegaard

Form going into Sandefjord vs Lillestrom

Sandefjord

Eliteserien

  • D1-1away to Rosenborg10 October 2026

Lillestrom

Eliteserien

  • D2-2Molde11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Sandefjord2677123139-828
4Lillestrom2614393935+445

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sandefjord vs Lillestrom

  • 16 May 2026Lillestrom 3–1 SandefjordEliteserien
  • 23 January 2026Lillestrom 1–2 SandefjordFriendlies Clubs
  • 23 November 2024Lillestrom 0–3 SandefjordEliteserien
  • 21 April 2024Sandefjord 0–1 LillestromEliteserien
  • 16 February 2024Lillestrom 2–2 SandefjordFriendlies Clubs
  • 3 December 2023Sandefjord 1–0 LillestromEliteserien

Leading scorers: Sandefjord and Lillestrom

Sandefjord

GoalsAssists

  • E. Patoulidis83

Lillestrom

GoalsAssists

  • Vá85

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lillestrom won 2–0 at Sandefjord. The model had leaned towards a win for Sandefjord at 43% and given a win for Lillestrom 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Thomas Lehne Olsen 13' for Lillestrom, Eric Kitolano 24' for Lillestrom. On expected goals it finished 1.39–0.53.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sandefjord a 5.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 2.4% after a win, 6.7% after a draw, 9.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.5%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.

For Lillestrom the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 16.7% going in: 27.4% after a win, 14.8% after a draw, 10.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 27.4%, 10.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sandefjord v Lillestrom has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 40% / 31% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 43% / 30% / 27%: the biggest move is Sandefjord's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Sandefjord win43%▲ +3
  2. Draw30%▼ −1
  3. Lillestrom win27%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.