31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

KV Mechelen vs Genk Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Achter de Kazerne, Mechelen
Referee: Lothar D'hondt, Belgium
Full time1 – 0

Final score: KV Mechelen 1-0 Genk.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% KV Mechelen, 27% draw, 43% Genk — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Genk at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

KV Mechelen95%Draw5%Genk0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

M. Decherf
2'
F. Vanderbiest
3'
10'
N. Adedeji-Sternberg
⚽S. Michezassist: M. Decherf
22'
K. Corbanie
24'
46'
🔁N. Adedeji-Sternbergout: A. Yokoyama
63'
🔁J. Itoout: A. Bibout
🔁M. Lohunanu-Mbasiout: D. Praet
64'
67'
K. Amaro
68'
M. Roganovic
🔁S. Michezout: M. Decoene
75'
F. Vanderbiest
75'
79'
🔁K. Amaroout: Y. Medina
80'
🔁B. Tahirovicout: A. De Wannemacker
🔁B. Ramanout: C. Van Meirvenne
85'
88'
M. Smets
90+4'
B. Heynen
90+5'
Y. Medina

Match stats — KV Mechelen vs Genk

42%Possession58%
8Shots20
3On target5
3Corners8
0.31xG1.65

Goals against chances

KV Mechelen1 from 0.31 xGmore than the chances were worth
Genk0 from 1.65 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

KV Mechelen 3-4-1-2
  • 1Ortwin De WolfG
  • 20Kobe CorbanieD
  • 2Luc MarijnissenD
  • 3José MarsàD
  • 23Simion MichezM
  • 6Fredrik HammarM
  • 30Marco DecherfM
  • 7Thérence KoudouM
  • 9Myron Van BrederodeF
  • 14Benito RamanF
  • 19Malcolm Lohunanu-MbasiF
Substitutes
  • 26Dennis PraetM
  • 39Massimo DecoeneM
  • 17Cedric Jan Van MeirvenneF
  • 32Tijn Van IngelgomG
  • 4Gora DioufD
  • 10Maxim KireevM
  • 11Bilal BafdiliM
  • 21Halil ÖzdemirF
  • 29Bill AntonioF
Genk 4-2-3-1
  • 28Lucca BrughmansG
  • 20Kevin AmaroD
  • 6Matte SmetsD
  • 44Josue Ndenge KongoloD
  • 18Joris KayembeD
  • 4Benjamin TahirovićM
  • 8Bryan HeynenM
  • 10Junya ItoM
  • 11Jeppe ErenbjergM
  • 32Noah Adedeji-SternbergM
  • 17Rafiu DurosinmiF
Substitutes
  • 30Ayumu YokoyamaF
  • 23Aaron BiboutF
  • 19Yaimar MedinaD
  • 56August De WannemackerM
  • 1Tobe LeysenG
  • 25Milan RoganovićD
  • 5Christiaan RavychD
  • 24Nikolas SattlbergerM
  • 21Ibrahima Sory BangouraM

Form going into KV Mechelen vs Genk

KV Mechelen

Jupiler Pro League

  • W4-3St. Truiden11 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Lommel United19 September 2026

Genk

Jupiler Pro League

  • W2-1Standard Liege25 October 2026
  • W3-0Kortrijk10 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Club Brugge KV20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11KV Mechelen113351320-712
7Genk114341815+315

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: KV Mechelen vs Genk

  • 13 February 2026KV Mechelen 2–3 GenkJupiler Pro League
  • 23 November 2025Genk 0–1 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
  • 18 January 2025KV Mechelen 1–2 GenkJupiler Pro League
  • 28 September 2024Genk 2–1 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
  • 11 February 2024KV Mechelen 1–1 GenkJupiler Pro League
  • 22 October 2023Genk 4–0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: KV Mechelen and Genk

KV Mechelen

No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Genk

GoalsAssists

  • R. Durosinmi60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

KV Mechelen beat Genk 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Genk at 43% and given a win for KV Mechelen 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: S. Michez 22' for KV Mechelen. On expected goals it finished 0.31–1.65.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave KV Mechelen a 19.3% chance to finish in the bottom two: 12.4% after a win, 19.1% after a draw, 23.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.4%, 6.9 points lower than before the match.

For Genk the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 21.9% going in: 26.5% after a win, 19.0% after a draw, 16.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.2%, 5.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.