FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: FK Jablonec 0-5 Slavia Praha.
Before kick-off the model made it 18% FK Jablonec, 24% draw, 58% Slavia Praha — fair odds of 5.56, 4.17 and 1.72.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Slavia Praha at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. HanušG
- 18M. CedidlaD
- 57F. NovákD
- 15D. PavlovićD
- 7V. TchanturishviliM
- 13R. SedláčekM
- 6N. OkekeM
- 20J. SlámaM
- 36G. KuolF
- 9A. RůsekF
- 21M. PolidarF
- 8F. ZorvanM
- 16H. AhlM
- 17S. AlioumF
- 19J. ChramostaF
- 24D. HollýM
- 44L. JawoF
- 99K. MihelakG
- 25S. NebylaM
- 23E. SobolD
- 29N. DomchakG
- 3T. HolešD
- 4D. ZimaD
- 6A. N'GuessanD
- 27T. VlčekM
- 16D. MosesM
- 23M. SadílekM
- 8O. KubiakM
- 20E. AyaosiM
- 15M. E. SuleimanM
- 30W. NowakF
- 10D. ŠturmF
- 40Adam RezekG
- 42M. KonečnýD
- 1O. KolářG
- 32Pavel KacorM
- 39D. JurásekD
- 22T. DiakitéM
- 13M. ChytilF
- 2Š. ChaloupekD
Form going into FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha
FK Jablonec
Czech Liga
- W2-1away to Hradec Králové25 October 2026
- L2-3Plzen18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Zbrojovka Brno10 October 2026
Slavia Praha
Czech Liga
- D1-1Mlada Boleslav24 October 2026
- D0-0Hradec Králové17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Zlin9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FK Jablonec | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 21 |
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 36 | 8 | +28 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha
FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha have met 7 times in the records we hold, Slavia Praha has won 4 of them to FK Jablonec's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Slavia Praha won the last one 5–0 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Jablonec | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 22 |
| Slavia Praha | 4 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 32 goals, an average of 4.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
Czech LigaFK Jablonec 0–5 Slavia Praha - 13 May 2026
Czech LigaSlavia Praha 5–1 FK Jablonec - 3 Mar 2026
CupFK Jablonec 2–2 Slavia Praha - 13 Dec 2025
Czech LigaSlavia Praha 4–3 FK Jablonec - 16 Aug 2025
Czech LigaFK Jablonec 1–1 Slavia Praha - 18 May 2025
Czech LigaFK Jablonec 3–2 Slavia Praha - 16 Mar 2025
Czech LigaSlavia Praha 3–0 FK Jablonec
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Slavia Praha's attack rates 85% above FK Jablonec's, and Slavia Praha concede 45% fewer than FK Jablonec. That gives Slavia Praha the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| FK Jablonec | 0.73 | 1.28 |
| Slavia Praha | 1.35 | 0.71 |
Leading scorers: FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha
FK Jablonec
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Slavia Praha
GoalsAssists
- M. Chytil61
- E. Ayaosi53
- W. Nowak51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Slavia Praha won 5–0 at FK Jablonec. The model had made a win for Slavia Praha its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Mubarak Suleiman 41' for Slavia Praha, Emmanuel Ayaosi 57' for Slavia Praha, Ange N'Guessan 66' for Slavia Praha, Mubarak Suleiman 75' for Slavia Praha, Danijel Sturm 80' for Slavia Praha. On expected goals it finished 0.58–2.19.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FK Jablonec a 81.0% chance to finish in the top ten: 89.6% after a win, 82.9% after a draw, 78.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 78.6%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.
For Slavia Praha the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 86.1% going in: 88.9% after a win, 83.7% after a draw, 81.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 88.9%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on FK Jablonec v Slavia Praha has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 16% / 24% / 60% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 18% / 24% / 58%: the biggest move is FK Jablonec's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- FK Jablonec win18%▲ +2
- Draw24%=
- Slavia Praha win58%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.