31 October 2026, 19:45 UTC

SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Freethiel Stadion, Beveren
Referee: Bert Put, Belgium
Full time1 – 2

Final score: SK Beveren 1-2 Union St. Gilloise.

Before kick-off the model made it 16% SK Beveren, 21% draw, 63% Union St. Gilloise — fair odds of 6.25, 4.76 and 1.59.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Union St. Gilloise at 63%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

SK Beveren0%Draw4%Union St. Gilloise96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Viktor Boone
39'
44'
⚽L. Patris
46'
🔁K. Rodriguezout: D. Aquino
52'
•Dylan Aquino
53'
Dylan Aquino
55'
⚽Guilherme Smithassist: L. Patris
•Arno Verschueren
60'
⚽A. Verschuerenassist: C. Janssens
60'
🔁C. Condeout: C. Bruls
65'
🔁E. Kaboreout: C. Lokesa
65'
65'
🔁R. Floruczout: A. Zorgane
69'
Massire Sylla
73'
🔁Guilherme Smithout: D. De Roeve
🔁L. Jansout: Y. Gomis
84'
🔁B. Godeauout: L. Mertens
84'
84'
🔁R. Mofokengout: R. Sykes
🔁J. Margarithaout: F. Slegers
90+3'

Match stats — SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise

54%Possession46%
10Shots10
4On target4
6Corners3
0.47xG0.69

Goals against chances

SK Beveren1 from 0.47 xGmore than the chances were worth
Union St. Gilloise2 from 0.69 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

SK Beveren 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. SchenkG
  • 21L. JansD
  • 3V. BooneD
  • 31B. GodeauD
  • 4C. JanssensD
  • 18S. DewaeleM
  • 44C. CondeM
  • 24A. VerschuerenM
  • 9E. KaboreM
  • 17J. MargarithaM
  • 33V. OlatunjiF
Substitutes
  • 84J. LusambaG
  • 2D. ThompsonD
  • 77S. KellerD
  • 35Y. GomisD
  • 48J. RobatschD
  • 22C. BrulsM
  • 5C. LokesaF
  • 8F. SlegersM
  • 92L. MertensF
Coach: Tim Bakens
Union St. Gilloise 3-4-1-2
  • 12H. KoffiG
  • 4N. ChibaniD
  • 29M. SyllaD
  • 55N. HavenaarD
  • 27L. PatrisM
  • 23B. ZeneliM
  • 6K. Van De PerreM
  • 11Guilherme SmithM
  • 38R. MofokengF
  • 30R. FloruczF
  • 13K. RodriguezF
Substitutes
  • 1V. ChambaereG
  • 71K. BoetsG
  • 26R. SykesD
  • 21D. De RoeveD
  • 10A. Ait El HadjM
  • 28D. OlaruM
  • 8A. ZorganeM
  • 14I. PavlicM
  • 20D. AquinoF
Coach: David Hubert

Form going into SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise

SK Beveren

Jupiler Pro League

  • D4-4away to KVC Westerlo24 October 2026
  • L1-3Lommel United9 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Kortrijk20 September 2026

Union St. Gilloise

Jupiler Pro League

  • W5-2Cercle Brugge25 October 2026
  • D1-1OH Leuven11 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Antwerp20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15SK Beveren113171323-1010
1Union St. Gilloise11920307+2329

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise

  • 7 December 2023SK Beveren 0–2 Union St. GilloiseCup
  • 27 April 2019SK Beveren 3–2 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
  • 6 April 2019Union St. Gilloise 5–1 SK BeverenJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise

SK Beveren

GoalsAssists

  • C. Lokesa50

Union St. Gilloise

GoalsAssists

  • R. Florucz50
  • R. Mofokeng42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Union St. Gilloise won 2–1 at SK Beveren. The model had made a win for Union St. Gilloise its most likely outcome, at 63%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: L. Patris 44' for Union St. Gilloise, Guilherme Smith 55' for Union St. Gilloise, A. Verschueren 60' for SK Beveren. Sent off: Dylan Aquino (Union St. Gilloise) 53'. On expected goals it finished 0.47–0.69.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave SK Beveren a 18.8% chance to finish in the bottom two: 12.1% after a win, 17.3% after a draw, 20.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.2%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.

For Union St. Gilloise the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 27.0% going in: 29.2% after a win, 22.4% after a draw, 20.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.2%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on SK Beveren v Union St. Gilloise has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 13% / 22% / 65% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 16% / 21% / 63%: the biggest move is SK Beveren's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. SK Beveren win16%▲ +3
  2. Draw21%▼ −1
  3. Union St. Gilloise win63%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.