31 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec Czech Liga prediction & result

Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Pardubice
Referee: Pavel Orel
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Pardubice 1-2 Slovan Liberec.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Pardubice, 32% draw, 34% Slovan Liberec — fair odds of 2.94, 3.13 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Pardubice at 34%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Pardubice0%Draw3%Slovan Liberec97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

41'
•Patrik Dulay
50'
⚽Lukas Masekassist: Vasil Kušej
⚽Václav Drchalassist: Emmanuel Godwin
53'
61'
🔁Matěj Mikulenkaout: Milan Lexa
Ioannis Foivos Botos
63'
🔁Victor Samuelout: Daniel Smekal
64'
🔁Ioannis Foivos Botosout: Tomas Jelinek
64'
65'
⚽Vojtěch Sychraassist: Milan Lexa
🔁Marek Ichaout: Arouna Ouattara
77'
81'
🔁Lukas Masekout: Enej Marsetic
81'
🔁Patrik Dulayout: Alexandr Buzek
🔁Václav Drchalout: Jiri Zima
84'
🔁Denis Halinskýout: Jason Noslin
84'
87'
🔁Vojtěch Sychraout: Augustin Drakpe
87'
🔁Vasil Kušejout: Petr Julis
90+3'
Petr Hodous

Match stats — Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec

52%Possession48%
18Shots13
5On target4
8Corners3
2.35xG1.38

Goals against chances

Pardubice1 from 2.35 xGless than the chances were worth
Slovan Liberec2 from 1.38 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Pardubice 4-3-3
  • 46V. NeumanG
  • 15E. GodwinD
  • 33D. HalinskýD
  • 37D. KrčíkD
  • 25R. MahutaD
  • 6M. IchaM
  • 19M. HlavatýM
  • 90G. BotosM
  • 20A. TankoF
  • 17V. DrchalF
  • 35S. ĎatkoF
Substitutes
  • 16T. JelínekM
  • 43J. NoslinD
  • 66A. OuattaraM
  • 1J. ŠerákG
  • 9D. SmékalF
  • 12J. TrédlD
  • 11J. ZimaM
  • 7Tomas UrbanF
  • 92Martin BeránekM
Coach: J. Trousil
Slovan Liberec 4-2-3-1
  • 40T. KoubekG
  • 5P. HodoušD
  • 3J. MikulaD
  • 29L. HůlkaD
  • 27A. KayondoD
  • 8L. MasopustM
  • 28V. SychraM
  • 24P. DulayM
  • 19V. KušejM
  • 25M. MikulenkaM
  • 9L. MašekF
Substitutes
  • 26J. BořilD
  • 33L. PešlG
  • 79E. MarsetičM
  • 15M. LexaM
  • 18J. KoželuhD
  • 17P. JulišF
  • 14A. DrakpeD
  • 16A. BužekM
  • 6A. BasiladzeF
Coach: B. Fodrek

Form going into Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec

Pardubice

Czech Liga

  • W2-1away to Plzen25 October 2026
  • W3-0Zlin17 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Sparta Praha11 October 2026

Slovan Liberec

Czech Liga

  • L0-1away to Sigma Olomouc17 October 2026
  • L0-2Slovácko11 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Artis19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Pardubice145271920-117
2Slovan Liberec13823168+826

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec

  • 27 March 2026Pardubice 1–2 Slovan LiberecFriendlies Clubs
  • 22 November 2025Pardubice 0–4 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
  • 27 July 2025Slovan Liberec 2–1 PardubiceCzech Liga
  • 14 December 2024Pardubice 1–1 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
  • 18 August 2024Slovan Liberec 3–0 PardubiceCzech Liga
  • 16 December 2023Pardubice 2–0 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga

Leading scorers: Pardubice and Slovan Liberec

Pardubice

No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

Slovan Liberec

GoalsAssists

  • L. Mašek40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Slovan Liberec won 2–1 at Pardubice. The goals: Lukas Masek 50' for Slovan Liberec, Václav Drchal 53' for Pardubice, Vojtěch Sychra 65' for Slovan Liberec. On expected goals it finished 2.35–1.38.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pardubice a 46.9% chance to finish in the top ten: 56.5% after a win, 45.0% after a draw, 39.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.6%, 7.3 points lower than before the match.

For Slovan Liberec the question was the chance to finish in the top ten, 93.6% going in: 96.4% after a win, 94.2% after a draw, 90.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 96.4%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Pardubice v Slovan Liberec has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 30% / 31% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 34% / 32% / 34%: the biggest move is Slovan Liberec's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Pardubice win34%▲ +4
  2. Draw32%▲ +1
  3. Slovan Liberec win34%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.