Leganes
vs
Burgos
Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Leganes 3-1 Burgos.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Leganes, 30% draw, 41% Burgos — fair odds of 3.45, 3.33 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Leganes 1.00, Burgos 1.27.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Segunda División predictions
Model insights: Leganes vs Burgos
Has the model earned this number?
Burgos at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leganes vs Burgos
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13L. ZidaneG
- 23Álvaro TejeroD
- 4Rubén PulidoD
- 5Ignasi MiquelD
- 2MarvelD
- 16U. del CuraM
- 20Miguel AtienzaM
- 14Dani RodríguezM
- 22Álex SancrisM
- 9Álex MillánF
- 21Álvaro MorataF
- 1Raúl FernándezG
- 32Suleiman El Haddadi MohamedF
- 15Enric FranquesaD
- 11Naim GarcíaF
- 33J. HerreroM
- 8Y. KechtaM
- 31Nico LozanoG
- 39Jorge MartínezF
- 19P. SokoF
- 13Ander CanteroG
- 2ÁlexD
- 15Oier LuengoD
- 8GregoD
- 3Ignasi VilarrasaD
- 12Unai VencedorM
- 4P. GaldamesM
- 23Alberto DadieM
- 16Curro SánchezM
- 19Javi LlabrésM
- 9Álex ForésF
- 5Marcelo ExpósitoM
- 21Fermin GarciaF
- 6Sergio GonzálezD
- 20José GrageraM
- 24S. LencinasM
- 22Brais MartínezD
- 36I. MartinezD
- 11Víctor MollejoF
- 30M. MonederoG
Form going into Leganes vs Burgos
Leganes
Segunda División
- L1-3Albacete7 November 2026
- L3-4away to Valladolid2 November 2026
- D1-1Mallorca24 October 2026
- L0-1Cordoba16 October 2026
Burgos
Segunda División
- W2-1Celta de Vigo II7 November 2026
- D1-1Castellón1 November 2026
- W3-2away to FC Andorra26 October 2026
- W1-0Sabadell18 October 2026
What these results say
- Leganes did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Leganes conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Leganes scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Burgos went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Burgos scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Burgos won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Leganes | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 15 |
| 4 | Burgos | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leganes vs Burgos
- 31 January 2026Burgos 2–1 LeganesSegunda División
- 1 November 2025Leganes 1–2 BurgosSegunda División
- 22 January 2024Leganes 2–0 BurgosSegunda División
- 4 October 2023Burgos 1–0 LeganesSegunda División
- 12 May 2023Burgos 0–3 LeganesSegunda División
- 18 September 2022Leganes 0–0 BurgosSegunda División
Leading scorers: Leganes and Burgos
Leganes
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Burgos
GoalsAssists
- Álex Forés41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leganes a 0% chance of the title and Burgos 0.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Leganes a 64.1% chance to finish in the bottom four: 57.5% after a win, 63.3% after a draw, 68.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 57.5%, 6.6 points lower than before the match.
For Burgos the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 10.8% going in: 13.3% after a win, 7.8% after a draw, 7.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 7.9%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Burgos the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Leganes against 1.27 for Burgos. Leganes's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.11 for Burgos.
How the model reaches 41% for Burgos to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Burgos to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Leganes's ratings add 6 points and Burgos's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Both sides at this match's level29%−1
- Leganes's ratings35%+6
- Burgos's ratings41%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.