15 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
Referee: Aliyar Agayev
Full time1 – 1

Final score: NEC Nijmegen 1-1 Levski Sofia.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% NEC Nijmegen, 28% draw, 33% Levski Sofia — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

NEC Nijmegen at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NEC Nijmegen4%Draw92%Levski Sofia4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
•Francisco Everton Mota de Castro
Noe Lebreton
24'
35'
⚽Reinaldo Nascimento Satornoassist: Svetoslav Vutsov
62'
🔁David Kussoout: Armstrong Oko-Flex
62'
🔁Mehdi Moubarikout: Gasper Trdin
⚽Tjaronn Chery
64'
🔁Perr Schuursout: Ahmetcan Kaplan
75'
75'
🔁Marko Grujićout: Mazire Soula
75'
🔁Francisco Everton Mota de Castroout: Juan Esteban Perea Sanchez
🔁Dušan Tadićout: Willum Thor Willumsson
84'
🔁Clement Bischoffout: Dennis Geiger
84'
🔁Noe Lebretonout: Almugera Kabar
90+2'
🔁Gabriel·Brasout: Yassin Moslih
90+2'
90+4'
🔁Reinaldo Nascimento Satornoout: Álex Centelles

Match stats — NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia

51%Possession49%
18Shots8
9On target2
6Corners1
2.17xG1.28

Goals against chances

NEC Nijmegen1 from 2.17 xGless than the chances were worth
Levski Sofia1 from 1.28 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NEC Nijmegen 3-4-3
  • 1G. CrettazG
  • 73Gabriel BrásD
  • 4P. SchuursD
  • 24Deveron FonvilleD
  • 34Kevin KersM
  • 6D. NejašmićM
  • 20N. LebretonM
  • 99Clement BischoffM
  • 9T. CheryF
  • 30B. LinssenF
  • 10D. TadićF
Substitutes
  • 18D. GeigerM
  • 38Joep GenesteG
  • 66Almugera Raouf Mohammed KabarD
  • 22A. KaplanD
  • 35Jamiro MonteiroM
  • 42Y. MoslihD
  • 12N. PolsterG
  • 14K. SierhuisF
  • 11W. WillumssonM
Coach: Dick Schreuder
Levski Sofia 4-3-3
  • 92S. VutsovG
  • 21AldairD
  • 50K. DimitrovD
  • 4C. MakounD
  • 3MaiconD
  • 35SerginhoM
  • 8M. GrujićM
  • 19E. El MoubarikM
  • 27David KussoF
  • 7ReinaldoF
  • 17Everton BalaF
Substitutes
  • 78M. LukovG
  • 11A. Oko-FlexF
  • 31N. SerafimovD
  • 22M. SoulaF
  • 18G. TrdinM
  • 20Álex CentellesD
  • 2Hevertton SantosD
  • 1O. VladimirovG
  • 9J. PereaF
Coach: Julio Velázquez

Form going into NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia

NEC Nijmegen

UEFA Europa League

  • L0-5away to Juventus17 September 2026

Levski Sofia

UEFA Europa League

  • L0-1Red Bull Salzburg17 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12NEC Nijmegen421189-17
10Levski Sofia421143+17

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: NEC Nijmegen and Levski Sofia

NEC Nijmegen

GoalsAssists

  • T. Chery31
  • B. Linssen31

Levski Sofia

No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

NEC Nijmegen and Levski Sofia drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for NEC Nijmegen at 39% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno 35' for Levski Sofia, Tjaronn Chery 64' for NEC Nijmegen. On expected goals it finished 2.17–1.28.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.