31 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Macva vs FK Crvena Zvezda Super Liga prediction & result

Gradski Stadion Sabac, Shabac
Full time2 – 4

Final score: Macva 2-4 FK Crvena Zvezda.

Before kick-off the model made it 10% Macva, 19% draw, 71% FK Crvena Zvezda — fair odds of 10.00, 5.26 and 1.41.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FK Crvena Zvezda at 71%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Macva0%Draw1%FK Crvena Zvezda99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
⚽Bamba Dieng
29'
⚽Bamba Diengassist: Timi Elsnik
⚽Igor Ristivojevićassist: Danilo Knežević
31'
Nikola Lainović
33'
Đorđe Đorđić
37'
⚽Milan Vidakov
55'
🔁Danilo Kneževićout: Kristijan Tojcic
60'
65'
🔁Loizos Loizouout: Kim Ye-geon
🔁Nikola Lainovićout: V. Ilić
71'
🔁stefan colovicout: mitar ergelas
71'
🔁Milan Vidakovout: Vasilije Đurić
80'
🔁Uros Drezgicout: Slobodan Sladojević
81'
84'
⚽Bamba Diengassist: Kim Ye-geon
86'
⚽Timi Elsnikassist: Vasilije Kostov
90'
🔁Yuta Nakayamaout: Tomas·Handel
90'
🔁Timi Elsnikout: Mohammad Abu Fani
90'
🔁Mihailo Ristićout: Andrej Sibinovic

Match stats — Macva vs FK Crvena Zvezda

37%Possession63%
9Shots19
3On target10
2Corners6
1.01xG2.18

Goals against chances

Macva2 from 1.01 xGmore than the chances were worth
FK Crvena Zvezda4 from 2.18 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Macva 4-2-3-1
  • 89V. JovanovićG
  • 17N. LainovićD
  • 26U. DrezgićD
  • 19I. RistivojevićD
  • 44N. StevanovićD
  • 34Danilo KneževićM
  • 8B. VraštanovićM
  • 55S. ČolovićM
  • 30Đorđe ĐorđićM
  • 27L. PejovićM
  • 9M. VidakovF
Substitutes
  • 99N. DelibasicF
  • 21Vasilije ĐurićM
  • 10M. ErgelašF
  • 5Darko TerzićM
  • 12K. RakonicG
  • 11V. RakićM
  • 35Issa KoneD
  • 4V. IlicD
  • 50B. MatićF
Coach: N. Glušica
FK Crvena Zvezda 3-4-1-2
  • 1MatheusG
  • 3Y. NakayamaD
  • 45S. GudeljD
  • 23M. RistićD
  • 21T. ElšnikM
  • 60M. GashtarovM
  • 33R. KrunićM
  • 37V. LučićM
  • 22V. KostovM
  • 75L. LoizouF
  • 9B. DiengF
Substitutes
  • 14O. BukariF
  • 70M. ChamM
  • 20Tomás HändelM
  • 10A. KataiM
  • 19Kim Ye-geonM
  • 6M. BajoM
  • 7M. ArnautovićF
  • 15M. Abu FaniM
  • 50S. RadanovićG
Coach: Riera

Form going into Macva vs FK Crvena Zvezda

Macva

Super Liga

  • L0-1away to Zemun23 October 2026
  • D1-1OFK Beograd17 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Cukaricki10 October 2026

FK Crvena Zvezda

Super Liga

  • W1-0away to OFK Beograd25 October 2026
  • W5-1Mladost Lucani18 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Radnicki 192310 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serbia Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Macva153481326-1313
1FK Crvena Zvezda151410386+3243

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Macva vs FK Crvena Zvezda

  • 17 July 2026FK Crvena Zvezda 5–0 MacvaSuper Liga
  • 29 September 2022Macva 0–2 FK Crvena ZvezdaCup
  • 11 March 2021FK Crvena Zvezda 4–0 MacvaSuper Liga
  • 9 August 2020Macva 0–3 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
  • 7 March 2020Macva 0–3 FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga
  • 28 September 2019FK Crvena Zvezda 3–1 MacvaSuper Liga

Leading scorers: Macva and FK Crvena Zvezda

Macva

GoalsAssists

  • M. Vidakov40

FK Crvena Zvezda

GoalsAssists

  • B. Dieng50
  • V. Kostov43
  • A. Katai34

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FK Crvena Zvezda won 4–2 at Macva. The model had made a win for FK Crvena Zvezda its most likely outcome, at 71%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Bamba Dieng 16' for FK Crvena Zvezda, Bamba Dieng 29' for FK Crvena Zvezda, Igor Ristivojević 31' for Macva, Milan Vidakov 55' for Macva, Bamba Dieng 84' for FK Crvena Zvezda, Timi Elsnik 86' for FK Crvena Zvezda. On expected goals it finished 1.01–2.18.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Macva a 71.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 54.6% after a win, 67.2% after a draw, 74.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 74.1%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.

For FK Crvena Zvezda the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 95.9% going in: 96.8% after a win, 94.1% after a draw, 90.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 96.8%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Super Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Macva v FK Crvena Zvezda has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 12% / 20% / 68% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 10% / 19% / 71%: the biggest move is FK Crvena Zvezda's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Macva win10%▼ −2
  2. Draw19%▼ −1
  3. FK Crvena Zvezda win71%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.