18 October 2026, 18:30 UTC

Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia I Liga prediction & result

Polsat Plus Arena, Gdansk
Referee: B. Frankowski
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Lechia Gdansk 2-1 Arka Gdynia.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Lechia Gdansk, 25% draw, 26% Arka Gdynia — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lechia Gdansk at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lechia Gdansk96%Draw4%Arka Gdynia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Shakh
36'
45+3'
K. Solecki
46'
🔁N. Dziegielewskiout: D. Kocyla
47'
⚽V. Gutkovskisassist: A. Sidibe
⚽K. Dodajassist: A. Shakh
51'
59'
🔁B. Pawlowskiout: F. Walus
59'
🔁K. Gruszkowskiout: K. Lipkowski
62'
A. Sidibe
🔁T. Wojtowiczout: H. Ivanov
68'
🔁T. Neugebauerout: B. Szczepankiewicz
85'
🔁A. Shakhout: N. Hovhannisyan
85'
🔁J. Menaout: J. Adkonis
86'
S. Kopasek
90'
90+3'
🔁M. Ambrosiewiczout: E. Rama

Form going into Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia

Lechia Gdansk

I Liga

  • W2-1away to Stal Rzeszów12 October 2026

Arka Gdynia

I Liga

  • L1-2Polonia Warszawa10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Lechia Gdansk147162522+322
12Arka Gdynia145361917+218

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia

  • 27 February 2026Arka Gdynia 2–2 Lechia GdanskEkstraklasa
  • 24 August 2025Lechia Gdansk 1–0 Arka GdyniaEkstraklasa
  • 19 May 2024Lechia Gdansk 2–1 Arka GdyniaI Liga
  • 24 November 2023Arka Gdynia 1–0 Lechia GdanskI Liga
  • 31 May 2020Lechia Gdansk 4–3 Arka GdyniaEkstraklasa
  • 20 October 2019Arka Gdynia 2–2 Lechia GdanskEkstraklasa

The result against the call

Lechia Gdansk beat Arka Gdynia 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Lechia Gdansk at 49%. The goals: A. Shakh 36' for Lechia Gdansk, V. Gutkovskis 47' for Arka Gdynia, K. Dodaj 51' for Lechia Gdansk.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lechia Gdansk a 66.6% chance to finish in the top four: 72.6% after a win, 63.3% after a draw, 59.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 72.6%, 6 points higher than before the match.

For Arka Gdynia the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 29.2% going in: 37.1% after a win, 29.7% after a draw, 24.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.2%, 5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Lechia Gdansk v Arka Gdynia has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 49% / 25% / 26%: the biggest move is Lechia Gdansk's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Lechia Gdansk win49%▲ +4
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Arka Gdynia win26%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.