19 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice I Liga prediction & result

Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Nieciecza
Referee: P. Swierczek
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Nieciecza 2-0 Puszcza Niepołomice.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Nieciecza, 25% draw, 20% Puszcza Niepołomice — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Nieciecza at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nieciecza99%Draw1%Puszcza Niepołomice0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•W. Jakubik
30'
33'
K. Kasolik
41'
A. Piekarski
⚽I. Durdov
45'
46'
🔁W. Kaminskiout: A. Trubeha
46'
🔁O. Korczakowskiout: M. Cholewiak
56'
•K. Kasolik
64'
🔁O. Gerstensteinout: K. Iwao
🔁W. Jakubikout: D. Biniek
71'
🔁I. Durdovout: R. Boboc
71'
⚽D. Hilbrycht
73'
77'
🔁A. Piekarskiout: I. Pieprzyca
77'
🔁M. Strajnarout: K. Wolowiec
🔁D. Hilbrychtout: A. Zarowny
82'
🔁M. Kozikout: M. Synos
83'
⚽K. Zapolnik (pen)assist: K. Zapolnik
90+7'

Form going into Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice

Nieciecza

I Liga

  • D2-2away to Unia Skierniewice10 October 2026

Puszcza Niepołomice

I Liga

  • W3-1away to Pogoń Siedlce15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Nieciecza146442220+222
16Puszcza Niepołomice144281620-414

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice

  • 8 July 2026Puszcza Niepołomice 0–3 NiecieczaFriendlies Clubs
  • 12 July 2024Nieciecza 1–1 Puszcza NiepołomiceFriendlies Clubs
  • 12 January 2024Puszcza Niepołomice 2–1 NiecieczaFriendlies Clubs
  • 11 June 2023Nieciecza 2–3 Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga
  • 12 April 2023Nieciecza 2–1 Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga
  • 15 August 2022Puszcza Niepołomice 0–0 NiecieczaI Liga

The result against the call

Nieciecza beat Puszcza Niepołomice 2–0. The model had made a win for Nieciecza its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: I. Durdov 45' for Nieciecza, D. Hilbrycht 73' for Nieciecza.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Nieciecza a 39.8% chance to finish in the top two: 43.5% after a win, 36.5% after a draw, 29.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 43.5%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.

For Puszcza Niepołomice the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 29.2% going in: 20.6% after a win, 28.1% after a draw, 31.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.8%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Nieciecza v Puszcza Niepołomice has moved

First published on 5 Oct at 50% / 27% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 55% / 25% / 20%: the biggest move is Nieciecza's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Nieciecza win55%▲ +5
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Puszcza Niepołomice win20%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.