17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów I Liga prediction & result

Boisko ul. Pilkarska 8
Referee: S. Lezny
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Polonia Bytom 3-2 Chrobry Głogów.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Polonia Bytom, 28% draw, 29% Chrobry Głogów — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Polonia Bytom at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Polonia Bytom97%Draw3%Chrobry Głogów0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

L. Zielinski
7'
⚽K. Andrzejczakassist: K. Wolkowicz
22'
⚽B. Miocassist: L. Zielinski
31'
⚽K. Wojtyraassist: K. Orlik
43'
46'
🔁A. Klimekout: A. Sadiku
46'
🔁F. Lachendroout: A. Rybak
🔁L. Zielinskiout: P. Stefanski
60'
🔁K. Wojtyraout: D. Rumin
60'
64'
🔁Y. Sharaburaout: M. Ozimek
65'
⚽J. Gric
74'
⚽J. Gric (pen)
🔁B. Miocout: D. Konieczny
74'
🔁M. Labojkoout: M. Wolski
82'
🔁G. Szymusikout: A. Malachowski
82'
82'
🔁R. Bakout: K. Ibe-Torti
88'
🔁M. Bartolewskiout: F. Zabrowarny
P. Stefanski
90+2'

Form going into Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów

Polonia Bytom

I Liga

  • W1-0away to Puszcza Niepołomice11 October 2026

Chrobry Głogów

I Liga

  • L0-4Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Polonia Bytom146622420+424
14Chrobry Głogów143651517-215

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów

  • 7 December 2025Polonia Bytom 2–0 Chrobry GłogówI Liga
  • 26 July 2025Chrobry Głogów 0–1 Polonia BytomI Liga

The result against the call

Polonia Bytom beat Chrobry Głogów 3–2. The model had made a win for Polonia Bytom its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: K. Andrzejczak 22' for Polonia Bytom, B. Mioc 31' for Polonia Bytom, K. Wojtyra 43' for Polonia Bytom, J. Gric 65' for Chrobry Głogów, J. Gric (penalty) 74' for Chrobry Głogów.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Polonia Bytom a 17.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 13.4% after a win, 19.7% after a draw, 22.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.4%, 4.4 points lower than before the match.

For Chrobry Głogów the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 18.4% going in: 11.2% after a win, 18.0% after a draw, 21.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.8%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Polonia Bytom v Chrobry Głogów has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 36% / 30% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 43% / 28% / 29%: the biggest move is Polonia Bytom's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Polonia Bytom win43%▲ +7
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Chrobry Głogów win29%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.