18 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Maribor vs Celje 1. SNL prediction & result

Ljudski vrt, Maribor
Referee: A. Matkovic
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Maribor 0-0 Celje.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Maribor, 27% draw, 30% Celje — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Maribor at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Maribor5%Draw92%Celje3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

51'
L. Bejger
66'
🔁A. Kucysout: B. Kramer
🔁Z. Repasout: B. Feta
67'
🔁C. Goncalvesout: Z. Jevsenak
67'
74'
S. Seslar
78'
🔁M. Ivansekout: A. Dionkou
78'
🔁B. Verbicout: V. Tusha
🔁C. Bumbicout: V. Koderman
85'
🔁L. Zahovicout: D. Vizinger
85'
🔁N. Ostercout: N. Viher
85'
89'
🔁Y. Dukulyout: P. Sirvys

Line-ups

Maribor
  • 1A. Jug
  • 3C. Bumbic
  • 6B. Mbondo
  • 7T. Cipot
  • 8C. Goncalves
  • 10Z. Repas
  • 23Z. Karnicnik
  • 25M. Blazic
  • 38N. Osterc
  • 70I. Tshipamba
  • 79L. Zahovic
Substitutes
  • 43T. Handanovic
  • 55M. Spanring
  • 50L. Vidmar
  • 24A. Zabukovec
  • 21V. Koderman
  • 4N. Viher
  • 5Z. Jevsenak
  • 14J. Seri
  • 15E. Taylor
Coach: Darko Milanic
Celje
  • 1Z. Leban
  • 11M. Avdyli
  • 6A. Tutyskinas
  • 44L. Bejger
  • 77M. Ivansek
  • 19M. Zabukovnik
  • 8M. Kvesic
  • 10S. Seslar
  • 91Y. Dukuly
  • 7B. Verbic
  • 47A. Kucys
Substitutes
  • 21S. Sluga
  • 20A. Dionkou
  • 2P. Sirvys
  • 33L. Koutris
  • 15Z. Zuzek
  • 3D. Vuklisevic
  • 13P. Daniel
  • 4D. Hrka
  • 27I. Calusic
Coach: Zoran Zeljkovic

Form going into Maribor vs Celje

Maribor

1. SNL

  • W2-1away to Brinje-Grosuplje11 October 2026

Celje

1. SNL

  • W1-0Aluminij10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. SNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Maribor156632216+624
3Celje146531913+623

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Maribor vs Celje

  • 1 August 2026Celje 1–1 Maribor1. SNL
  • 4 April 2026Celje 1–0 Maribor1. SNL
  • 1 February 2026Maribor 3–3 Celje1. SNL
  • 27 September 2025Celje 3–0 Maribor1. SNL
  • 20 July 2025Maribor 1–2 Celje1. SNL
  • 7 May 2025Maribor 1–1 Celje1. SNL

The result against the call

Maribor and Celje drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Maribor at 43% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Maribor a 50.2% chance to finish top of the regular season: 57.0% after a win, 48.1% after a draw, 41.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 48.1%, 2.1 points lower than before the match.

For Celje the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 22.1% going in: 29.7% after a win, 21.8% after a draw, 16.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 21.8%.

Read from our 1. SNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Maribor v Celje has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 27% / 30%: the biggest move is Maribor's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Maribor win43%▲ +3
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Celje win30%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.