31 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Podbeskidzie vs Warta Poznań I Liga prediction & result

Stadion Miejski w Bielsku Bialej
Referee: D. Sulikowski
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Podbeskidzie 1-1 Warta Poznań.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Podbeskidzie, 29% draw, 32% Warta Poznań — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Podbeskidzie at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Podbeskidzie5%Draw92%Warta Poznań3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
A. Najemski
25'
J. Kendzia
28'
⚽J. Apolinarskiassist: K. Lysiak
M. Rakoczy
41'
45'
🔁M. Stanekout: P. Kusztal
🔁W. Slomkaout: D. Takac
46'
50'
A. Najemski
50'
A. Najemski
52'
🔁K. Lysiakout: K. Kalata
53'
🔁A. Mlynarczykout: K. Szymanek
🔁A. Iwanczykout: Y. Shikavka
56'
🔁O. Sewerzynskiout: M. Urynowicz
56'
⚽Y. Shikavkaassist: K. Gach
57'
58'
A. Wolczek
K. Sochan
59'
🔁T. Hirosawaout: B. Martosz
62'
72'
🔁A. Wolczekout: M. Stefaniak
72'
🔁J. Niedzielskiout: F. Rejczyk
M. Biernat
74'
90+1'
K. Szymanek

Form going into Podbeskidzie vs Warta Poznań

Podbeskidzie

I Liga

  • W2-1Stal Rzeszów25 October 2026
  • L0-1away to ŁKS Łódź18 October 2026
  • W1-0Pogoń Siedlce9 October 2026

Warta Poznań

I Liga

  • L0-1ŁKS Łódź26 October 2026
  • W1-0Unia Skierniewice16 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Stal Mielec11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Podbeskidzie142931720-315
9Warta Poznań146172020019

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Podbeskidzie vs Warta Poznań

  • 19 April 2026Warta Poznań 1–2 PodbeskidzieII Liga - East
  • 4 October 2025Podbeskidzie 2–3 Warta PoznańII Liga - East
  • 21 March 2021Warta Poznań 2–0 PodbeskidzieEkstraklasa
  • 19 October 2020Podbeskidzie 1–2 Warta PoznańEkstraklasa
  • 9 March 2020Podbeskidzie 2–0 Warta PoznańI Liga
  • 21 August 2019Warta Poznań 2–1 PodbeskidzieI Liga

The result against the call

Podbeskidzie and Warta Poznań drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Podbeskidzie at 39% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: J. Apolinarski 28' for Warta Poznań, Y. Shikavka 57' for Podbeskidzie. Sent off: A. Najemski (Warta Poznań) 50'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Podbeskidzie a 21.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 16.1% after a win, 22.6% after a draw, 24.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 22.6%, 1.6 points higher than before the match.

For Warta Poznań the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 14.4% going in: 18.3% after a win, 13.7% after a draw, 10.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 13.7%, 0.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Podbeskidzie v Warta Poznań has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 38% / 28% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Warta Poznań's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Podbeskidzie win39%▲ +1
  2. Draw29%▲ +1
  3. Warta Poznań win32%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.