2 November 2026, 19:30 UTC

ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Warszawa I Liga prediction & result

Lodz
Referee: T. Marciniak
Full time1 – 1

Final score: ŁKS Łódź 1-1 Polonia Warszawa.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% ŁKS Łódź, 28% draw, 27% Polonia Warszawa — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

ŁKS Łódź at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

ŁKS Łódź97%Draw3%Polonia Warszawa0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽B. Farbiszewskiassist: S. Karasinski
57'
59'
🔁J. Budnickiout: D. Olafsson
60'
🔁S. Skrabbout: S. Kowalczyk
⚽S. Rudol (pen)assist: S. Rudol
70'
S. Rudol
70'
70'
🔁I. Durmusout: R. Dadok
70'
🔁E. Terpilowskiout: D. Vega
🔁L. Szczygielout: K. Nowakowski
73'
🔁M. Wysokinskiout: K. Terlecki
73'
M. Kaput
78'
🔁A. Arasaout: F. Piasecki
80'
🔁S. Karasinskiout: I. Strzalek
80'
81'
🔁T. Makowskiout: K. Kostorz
🔁K. Hinokioout: K. Prusinski
86'
90+3'
⚽K. Kostorz

Form going into ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Warszawa

ŁKS Łódź

I Liga

  • W1-0away to Warta Poznań26 October 2026
  • W1-0Podbeskidzie18 October 2026
  • L0-2Ruch Chorzów11 October 2026

Polonia Warszawa

I Liga

  • D1-1Miedz Legnica23 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki17 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Arka Gdynia10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2ŁKS Łódź147431712+525
1Polonia Warszawa147432315+825

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Warszawa

  • 9 March 2026Polonia Warszawa 0–1 ŁKS ŁódźI Liga
  • 23 August 2025ŁKS Łódź 2–2 Polonia WarszawaI Liga
  • 17 May 2025Polonia Warszawa 0–1 ŁKS ŁódźI Liga
  • 8 November 2024ŁKS Łódź 0–0 Polonia WarszawaI Liga
  • 17 November 2023ŁKS Łódź 2–0 Polonia WarszawaFriendlies Clubs
  • 14 July 2023ŁKS Łódź 6–2 Polonia WarszawaFriendlies Clubs

The result against the call

ŁKS Łódź and Polonia Warszawa drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for ŁKS Łódź at 45% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: B. Farbiszewski 57' for ŁKS Łódź, K. Kostorz 90+3' for Polonia Warszawa.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave ŁKS Łódź a 32.2% chance to finish in the top two: 38.6% after a win, 27.1% after a draw, 23.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 27.1%, 5.1 points lower than before the match.

For Polonia Warszawa the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 25.1% going in: 34.3% after a win, 24.2% after a draw, 19.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 24.2%, 0.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.