30 October 2026, 19:30 UTC

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec I Liga prediction & result

Stadion Miejski, Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Referee: L. Karski
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 0-1 Stal Mielec.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, 23% draw, 20% Stal Mielec — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki0%Draw6%Stal Mielec94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽F. Gerbowskiassist: M. Cebula
62'
B. Kwiecien
🔁D. Jaronout: H. Turski
63'
🔁K. Kargulewiczout: J. Jedrasik
63'
🔁H. Uzoigweout: M. Ruszkiewicz
63'
67'
🔁K. Cybulskiout: H. Matynia
68'
🔁T. Gmurout: S. Oure
A. Oshafi
69'
🔁B. Ciepielaout: O. Koprowski
69'
72'
🔁B. Kwiecienout: P. Prajsnar
72'
🔁M. Cebulaout: M. Domanski
🔁K. Losout: G. Gulczynski
87'
88'
🔁F. Gerbowskiout: N. Niedzwiedz
J. Zbrog
89'

Form going into Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

I Liga

  • L0-2away to Ruch Chorzów25 October 2026
  • L0-1Polonia Warszawa17 October 2026
  • W4-0away to Chrobry Głogów10 October 2026

Stal Mielec

I Liga

  • D0-0Chrobry Głogów24 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Miedz Legnica17 October 2026
  • W2-1Warta Poznań11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki146352014+621
11Stal Mielec145451927-819

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec

  • 6 April 2026Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1–2 Stal MielecI Liga
  • 19 September 2025Stal Mielec 1–2 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiI Liga

The result against the call

Stal Mielec won 1–0 at Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. The model had leaned towards a win for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 57% and given a win for Stal Mielec 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: F. Gerbowski 6' for Stal Mielec.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki a 24.6% chance to finish in the top two: 27.3% after a win, 19.7% after a draw, 16.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.9%, 7.7 points lower than before the match.

For Stal Mielec the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 49.3% going in: 38.0% after a win, 48.2% after a draw, 52.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.0%, 11.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.