5 November 2026, 17:45 UTC

Real Sociedad vs Lyon UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Anoeta, San Sebastian
Referee: Anastasios Papapetrou
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Real Sociedad 1-1 Lyon.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Real Sociedad, 24% draw, 27% Lyon — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Real Sociedad at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Real Sociedad5%Draw91%Lyon4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Orri Steinn Óskarssonassist: Ander Barrenetxea
28'
38'
Kail Boudache
🔁Mamadou Sarrout: Jon Martin
45'
54'
⚽Corentin Tolissoassist: Tanner Tessmann
Gonçalo Guedes
61'
🔁Gonçalo Guedesout: Job Ochieng
66'
67'
🔁Keito Nakamuraout: Julien Duranville
75'
🔁Mads Bidstrupout: Noah Teye Nartey
Ander Barrenetxea
77'
🔁Orri Steinn Óskarssonout: Luka Sučić
79'
🔁Ander Barrenetxeaout: Pablo Marin
79'
82'
Julien Duranville
87'
Dominik Greif
Yangel Herrera
89'
89'
🔁Kail Boudacheout: Nicolás Tagliafico
89'
🔁Khalis Merahout: Alejandro Gomes Rodríguez
90+1'
Abner Vinicius

Match stats — Real Sociedad vs Lyon

47%Possession53%
11Shots12
4On target4
5Corners6
1.41xG1.16

Goals against chances

Real Sociedad1 from 1.41 xGabout what the chances were worth
Lyon1 from 1.16 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Real Sociedad 4-4-2
  • 13Unai MarreroG
  • 2J. AramburuD
  • 5ZubeldiaD
  • 19M. SarrD
  • 17Sergio GómezD
  • 7BarrenetxeaM
  • 4Jon GorrotxategiM
  • 21Y. HerreraM
  • 11Gonçalo GuedesM
  • 10Mikel OyarzabalF
  • 9O. ÓskarssonF
Substitutes
  • 8Beñat TurrientesM
  • 22Héctor FortD
  • 14T. KuboF
  • 28A. LebarbierM
  • 29Alex GarciaF
  • 15Pablo MarínM
  • 6Jon MartínD
  • 3Aihen MuñozD
  • 12J. OchiengF
Coach: P. Matarazzo
Lyon 4-3-3
  • 1D. GreifG
  • 13Z. AthekameD
  • 20F. BacherD
  • 21R. KluivertD
  • 16AbnerD
  • 2M. BidstrupM
  • 6T. TessmannM
  • 8C. TolissoM
  • 26K. BoudacheF
  • 18K. MerahF
  • 11Keito NakamuraF
Substitutes
  • 44A. HamdaniF
  • 85N. KamaraD
  • 22Clinton MataD
  • 99N. NarteyM
  • 3N. TagliaficoD
  • 46Tiago GonçalvesM
  • 32Alejandro Gomes RodriguezF
  • 24J. DuranvilleF
  • 40R. DescampsG
Coach: Jorge Maciel

Form going into Real Sociedad vs Lyon

Real Sociedad

UEFA Europa League

  • W6-0away to Lillestrom22 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Union St. Gilloise15 October 2026
  • L1-2Bournemouth17 September 2026

Lyon

UEFA Europa League

  • L0-3away to 1899 Hoffenheim22 October 2026
  • W3-2Crystal Palace15 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Anderlecht16 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Real Sociedad412194+55
13Lyon421167-17

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Real Sociedad vs Lyon

  • 28 August 2013Real Sociedad 2–0 LyonUEFA Champions League
  • 20 August 2013Lyon 0–2 Real SociedadUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: Real Sociedad and Lyon

Real Sociedad

GoalsAssists

  • Sergio Gómez30

Lyon

No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Real Sociedad and Lyon drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Real Sociedad at 49% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Orri Steinn Óskarsson 28' for Real Sociedad, Corentin Tolisso 54' for Lyon. On expected goals it finished 1.41–1.16.

How the call on Real Sociedad v Lyon has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 44% / 25% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 49% / 24% / 27%: the biggest move is Real Sociedad's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Real Sociedad win49%▲ +5
  2. Draw24%▼ −1
  3. Lyon win27%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.