Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Sparta Praha 1-3 Bournemouth.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Sparta Praha, 27% draw, 47% Bournemouth — fair odds of 3.85, 3.70 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Bournemouth at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 44J. SurovčíkG
- 25K. HoeverD
- 22L. Mbe SohD
- 6T. GuddalD
- 2M. SuchomelD
- 28R. MacekM
- 20S. MannsverkM
- 18A. IrvingM
- 27E. SinghatehF
- 14J. Braut BrunesF
- 7J. AlcócerF
- 65Stepan DyntarG
- 30J. ZelenýD
- 26P. VydraM
- 5Santiago EnemeM
- 21J. GrimaldoF
- 47K. HegyiG
- 31M. JurásekM
- 3P. KadeřábekD
- 4J. MartinecD
- 20M. Di GregorioG
- 15A. SmithD
- 5J. HillD
- 18B. DiakitéD
- 6J. SolerD
- 4L. CookM
- 10R. ChristieM
- 11B. DoakM
- 21A. AdliM
- 7D. BrooksM
- 30Á. RodríguezF
- 16M. TavernierM
- 14António SilvaD
- 37RayanF
- 1Đ. PetrovićG
- 19J. KluivertF
- 9EvanilsonF
- 55M. AllanG
- 12T. AdamsM
- 3A. TruffertD
Form going into Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth
Sparta Praha
UEFA Europa League
- L0-1away to Olympiakos Piraeus22 October 2026
- D1-1Lillestrom15 October 2026
- W4-1away to Ararat-Armenia16 September 2026
Bournemouth
UEFA Europa League
- W3-0AC Milan22 October 2026
- W3-0Sturm Graz15 October 2026
- W2-1away to Real Sociedad17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Sparta Praha | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Sparta Praha and Bournemouth
Sparta Praha
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Bournemouth
GoalsAssists
- Rayan30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bournemouth won 3–1 at Sparta Praha. The model had made a win for Bournemouth its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Ebrima Singhateh 35' for Sparta Praha, Tyler Adams 57' for Bournemouth, Francisco Evanilson 81' for Bournemouth, Rayan Vitor Simplício Rocha 90' for Bournemouth. Sent off: Tobias Kvalvagnes Guddal (Sparta Praha) 37'. On expected goals it finished 2.14–2.31.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.