Los Angeles FC vs Austin Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Los Angeles FC 3-1 Austin.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Los Angeles FC, 26% draw, 21% Austin — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Los Angeles FC at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Los Angeles FC vs Austin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1H. LlorisG
- 14Sergi PalenciaD
- 5R. PorteousD
- 33A. LongD
- 23Y. CheberkoD
- 8M. DelgadoM
- 6Igor JesusM
- 81L. WaltaM
- 7Son Heung-MinM
- 9A. SiebM
- 99D. BouangaF
- 19T. BoydF
- 66M. ChoinièreM
- 12T. HasalG
- 24R. HollingsheadD
- 91N. TafariD
- 4E. SeguraD
- 18J. ShaffelburgF
- 43ThayllonF
- 20S. VasquezM
- 1B. StuverG
- 4B. Hines-IkeD
- 5O. SvatokD
- 29Guilherme BiroD
- 30J. RosalesM
- 38Ervin TorresM
- 14B. ŠabovićM
- 17J. GallagherM
- 21C. RamirezF
- 9B. VázquezF
- 11F. TorresF
- 15J. BellD
- 32M. BurtonM
- 35M. ĐorđevićD
- 12D. LasG
- 77P. PłachetaM
- 6Ilie SánchezM
- 10M. UzuniF
- 22Chris ApplewhiteD
- 24Jorge AlastueyM
Form going into Los Angeles FC vs Austin
Los Angeles FC
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Vancouver Whitecaps11 October 2026
- L0-1away to FC Dallas27 September 2026
- D2-2away to San Jose Earthquakes19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting Kansas City13 September 2026
- W2-0New York Red Bulls10 September 2026
Austin
All competitions we cover
- L1-4Nashville SC11 October 2026
- D3-3San Diego27 September 2026
- D0-0away to FC Dallas20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Vancouver Whitecaps13 September 2026
- D1-1Colorado Rapids10 September 2026
What these results say
- Los Angeles FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Austin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 52 | 40 | +12 | 47 |
| 14 | Austin | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 42 | 65 | -23 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Los Angeles FC vs Austin
- 22 March 2026Austin 0–0 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 3 November 2025Austin 1–4 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 30 October 2025Los Angeles FC 2–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 12 October 2025Austin 1–0 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- 15 March 2025Los Angeles FC 0–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Los Angeles FC and Austin
Los Angeles FC
GoalsAssists
- D. Bouanga185
Austin
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 42 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Los Angeles FC beat Austin 3–1. The model had made a win for Los Angeles FC its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Denis Bouanga 52' for Los Angeles FC, Brandon Vazquez 66' for Austin, Denis Bouanga 67' for Los Angeles FC, Son Heung-min 72' for Los Angeles FC. On expected goals it finished 4.40–0.65.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Los Angeles FC a 19.7% chance to finish in the top four: 25.7% after a win, 11.2% after a draw, 5.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.7%, 6 points higher than before the match.
For Austin the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 53.6% going in: 30.3% after a win, 50.8% after a draw, 61.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 61.4%, 7.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Los Angeles FC v Austin has moved
First published on 1 Oct at 47% / 28% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 53% / 26% / 21%: the biggest move is Los Angeles FC's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Los Angeles FC win53%▲ +6
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Austin win21%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Los Angeles FC's most recent league matches and Austin's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.