Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Real Salt Lake 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Real Salt Lake, 26% draw, 36% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Real Salt Lake at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Rafael CabralG
- 44L. De FougerollesD
- 26P. QuintonD
- 3K. HenryD
- 11D. MarczukM
- 92N. CaliskanM
- 6S. SpieringsM
- 8J. SanabriaM
- 9M. GuilavoguiM
- 12S. LobzhanidzeM
- 22S. SolansF
- 23Chadwick Zachary BoothM
- 25Colin GuskeM
- 39A. HezarkhaniF
- 29S. JunquaD
- 98A. KatránisD
- 34L. MoisaM
- 19A. PiolF
- 31M. StajduharG
- 2D. YedlinD
- 1A. GunnG
- 3P. MarieD
- 25M. FlorianiD
- 4D. RomneyD
- 18R. RobertsD
- 2J. RickettsD
- 6I. HarkesM
- 20N. FernandezM
- 34Beau LerouxM
- 19P. JuddF
- 7O. BoudaF
- 14R. VieiraM
- 23E. LöwenM
- 9L. JovanovićF
- 17Jack JasinskiD
- 36E. EdwardsG
- 87Vítor CostaD
- 21N. BuckM
- 11T. WernerF
- 5D. MunieD
Form going into Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
Real Salt Lake
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Philadelphia Union10 October 2026
- W3-0New England Revolution27 September 2026
- L0-2away to Seattle Sounders24 September 2026
- L0-3Vancouver Whitecaps20 September 2026
- L0-2New York City FC13 September 2026
San Jose Earthquakes
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Colorado Rapids11 October 2026
- W3-1Portland Timbers27 September 2026
- D2-2Los Angeles FC19 September 2026
- W1-0Houston Dynamo13 September 2026
- W3-2away to San Diego10 September 2026
What these results say
- Real Salt Lake failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Salt Lake conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Real Salt Lake | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 53 | 52 | +1 | 45 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 57 | 51 | +6 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
- 27 July 2025Real Salt Lake 2–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 23 February 2025San Jose Earthquakes 4–0 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 6 October 2024San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 25 August 2024Real Salt Lake 0–2 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 17 September 2023San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes
Real Salt Lake
GoalsAssists
- S. Solans154
San Jose Earthquakes
GoalsAssists
- P. Judd172
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Real Salt Lake and San Jose Earthquakes drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Real Salt Lake at 38% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Luc De Fougerolles 79' for Real Salt Lake, Jack Jasinski 90+4' for San Jose Earthquakes. On expected goals it finished 2.03–1.02.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Real Salt Lake a 28.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 14.5% after a win, 30.8% after a draw, 41.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 30.8%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.
For San Jose Earthquakes the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 56.1% going in: 73.6% after a win, 54.3% after a draw, 42.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 54.3%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Real Salt Lake v San Jose Earthquakes has moved
First published on 1 Oct at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 38% / 26% / 36%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- Real Salt Lake win38%▲ +1
- Draw26%▼ −2
- San Jose Earthquakes win36%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.