Los Angeles Galaxy vs Portland Timbers Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Los Angeles Galaxy 2-0 Portland Timbers.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Los Angeles Galaxy, 24% draw, 36% Portland Timbers — fair odds of 2.50, 4.17 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Los Angeles Galaxy at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Los Angeles Galaxy vs Portland Timbers
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12J. MarcinkowskiG
- 2CalegariD
- 15J. HaakD
- 25C. GarcésD
- 14J. NelsonD
- 17P. RuizM
- 6Sergi RobertoM
- 18M. ReusM
- 28J. PaintsilM
- 21R. TaylorM
- 99KlaussF
- 3J. AudeD
- 76T. ElgersmaM
- 5J. GlesnesD
- 1N. MićovićG
- 26Harbor MillerD
- 8L. SanabriaM
- 27E. ThommyM
- 22E. WynderM
- 4M. YoshidaD
- 41J. PantemisG
- 12R. HernándezD
- 2J. WatermanD
- 4K. MillerD
- 27J. ForyD
- 80J. OrtizM
- 30J. CaicedoM
- 10David Pereira da CostaM
- 7A. LassiterF
- 14V. JanssenF
- 99K. VeldeF
- 23Ian SmithD
- 25T. MuseG
- 15E. MillerD
- 73Eric IzoitaM
- 22O. FernandezF
- 21D. CharáM
- 17C. BassettM
- 28A. AravenaF
- 11AntonyF
Form going into Los Angeles Galaxy vs Portland Timbers
Los Angeles Galaxy
All competitions we cover
- L2-6away to St. Louis City11 October 2026
- W3-2Colorado Rapids27 September 2026
- W3-2away to Minnesota United FC20 September 2026
- D1-1Seattle Sounders13 September 2026
- L0-3away to Vancouver Whitecaps10 September 2026
Portland Timbers
All competitions we cover
- D3-3away to Sporting Kansas City11 October 2026
- L1-3away to San Jose Earthquakes27 September 2026
- L0-1Atlanta United FC20 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Dallas13 September 2026
- D2-2St. Louis City10 September 2026
What these results say
- Los Angeles Galaxy conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles Galaxy scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Los Angeles Galaxy had three goals or more.
- Portland Timbers did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 44 |
| 7 | Portland Timbers | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 62 | 61 | +1 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Los Angeles Galaxy vs Portland Timbers
- 22 March 2026Portland Timbers 1–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 23 January 2026Los Angeles Galaxy 1–0 Portland TimbersFriendlies Clubs
- 28 April 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 2–4 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 16 March 2025Portland Timbers 1–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- 19 September 2024Portland Timbers 4–2 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
The result against the call
Los Angeles Galaxy beat Portland Timbers 2–0. The model had made a win for Los Angeles Galaxy its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Marco Reus 17' for Los Angeles Galaxy, Justin Haak 80' for Los Angeles Galaxy. On expected goals it finished 1.77–0.70.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Los Angeles Galaxy a 14.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.1% after a win, 14.1% after a draw, 23.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.1%, 10.5 points lower than before the match.
For Portland Timbers the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 17.4% going in: 5.1% after a win, 17.5% after a draw, 28.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.3%, 10.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Los Angeles Galaxy v Portland Timbers has moved
First published on 1 Oct at 39% / 27% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 40% / 24% / 36%: the biggest move is the draw, down 3 points.
- Los Angeles Galaxy win40%▲ +1
- Draw24%▼ −3
- Portland Timbers win36%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Los Angeles Galaxy's most recent league matches and Portland Timbers's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.