26 October 2026, 01:00 UTC

Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy Major League Soccer prediction & result

BMO Stadium, Los Angeles
Referee: Armando Villarreal
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Los Angeles FC 2-2 Los Angeles Galaxy.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Los Angeles FC, 24% draw, 21% Los Angeles Galaxy — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Los Angeles FC at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Los Angeles FC6%Draw91%Los Angeles Galaxy3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Denis Bouanga
30'
34'
⚽Joseph Paintsilassist: Robert Taylor
🔁Igor Jesusout: Mathieu Choinière
45'
51'
⚽Joseph Paintsil
⚽Denis Bouanga
53'
Ryan Porteous
55'
⚽Leo Walta
62'
🔁Marky Delgadoout: Sergio Vasquez
66'
🔁Ryan Porteousout: Nkosi Tafari
66'
67'
🔁Erik Thommyout: Lucas Agustin·Sanabria Magole
67'
🔁Robert Taylorout: Lucas Felipe·Calegari
73'
🔁Joseph Paintsilout: Jakob Glesnes
🔁Leo Waltaout: Tyler Boyd
82'
90'
🔁Jakob Glesnesout: Maya Yoshida
90+3'
Pablo Ruiz

Match stats — Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy

57%Possession43%
21Shots10
5On target4
12Corners1
2.77xG1.74

Goals against chances

Los Angeles FC2 from 2.77 xGless than the chances were worth
Los Angeles Galaxy2 from 1.74 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Los Angeles FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1H. LlorisG
  • 14Sergi PalenciaD
  • 5R. PorteousD
  • 33A. LongD
  • 23Y. CheberkoD
  • 8M. DelgadoM
  • 6Igor JesusM
  • 81L. WaltaM
  • 7Son Heung-MinM
  • 9A. SiebM
  • 99D. BouangaF
Substitutes
  • 12T. HasalG
  • 17J. EbobisseF
  • 66M. ChoinièreM
  • 19T. BoydF
  • 24R. HollingsheadD
  • 4E. SeguraD
  • 18J. ShaffelburgF
  • 91N. TafariD
  • 20S. VasquezM
Coach: Xavi Tamarit
Los Angeles Galaxy 4-2-3-1
  • 12J. MarcinkowskiG
  • 26Harbor MillerD
  • 25C. GarcésD
  • 15J. HaakD
  • 14J. NelsonD
  • 17P. RuizM
  • 6Sergi RobertoM
  • 21R. TaylorM
  • 27E. ThommyM
  • 28J. PaintsilM
  • 99KlaussF
Substitutes
  • 4M. YoshidaD
  • 2CalegariD
  • 3J. AudeD
  • 76T. ElgersmaM
  • 5J. GlesnesD
  • 1N. MićovićG
  • 8L. SanabriaM
  • 22E. WynderM
Coach: Greg Vanney

Form going into Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy

Los Angeles FC

Major League Soccer

  • D1-1away to New York City FC17 October 2026
  • W3-1Austin15 October 2026

Los Angeles Galaxy

Major League Soccer

  • D2-2San Diego18 October 2026
  • W2-0Portland Timbers15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Los Angeles FC341211115240+1247
11Los Angeles Galaxy341111125057-744

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Los Angeles FC vs Los Angeles Galaxy

  • 18 July 2026Los Angeles Galaxy 0–3 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
  • 20 July 2025Los Angeles FC 3–3 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
  • 19 May 2025Los Angeles Galaxy 2–2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
  • 15 September 2024Los Angeles Galaxy 4–2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
  • 5 July 2024Los Angeles Galaxy 1–2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
  • 6 April 2024Los Angeles FC 2–1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Los Angeles FC and Los Angeles Galaxy

Los Angeles FC

GoalsAssists

  • D. Bouanga185

Los Angeles Galaxy

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 50 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Los Angeles FC and Los Angeles Galaxy drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Los Angeles FC at 55% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Joseph Paintsil 34' for Los Angeles Galaxy, Joseph Paintsil 51' for Los Angeles Galaxy, Denis Bouanga 53' for Los Angeles FC, Leo Walta 62' for Los Angeles FC. On expected goals it finished 2.77–1.74.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Los Angeles Galaxy a 43.5% chance to finish in the top nine: 74.3% after a win, 49.0% after a draw, 33.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 49.0%, 5.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.