31 October 2026, 21:00 UTC

San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake Major League Soccer prediction & result

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Referee: L. Hernandez
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Final score: San Jose Earthquakes 2-1 Real Salt Lake.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% San Jose Earthquakes, 26% draw, 32% Real Salt Lake — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

San Jose Earthquakes at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

San Jose Earthquakes96%Draw4%Real Salt Lake0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Ousseni Bouda
2'
⚽Benjamin Kikanovicassist: Jamar Ricketts
17'
23'
⚽Juan Sanabriaassist: Sam Junqua
45'
🔁Dominik Marczukout: Chadwick Zachary Booth
45'
🔁Sam Junquaout: Aiden Hezarkhani
🔁Benjamin Kikanovicout: Jack Jasinski
45'
Reid Roberts
46'
N.Tsakiris
60'
🔁Ian Harkesout: Ronaldo Vieira
60'
🔁N.Tsakirisout: Beau Leroux
60'
🔁Nick Fernandezout: Eduard Löwen
60'
60'
🔁Justen Gladout: Lukas Engel
63'
Philip Quinton
70'
🔁Chadwick Zachary Boothout: Alexandros Katranis
71'
🔁Stijn Spieringsout: Ariath Piol
🔁Preston Juddout: Luka Jovanovic
81'
90+6'
Alexandros Katranis

Match stats — San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake

44%Possession56%
15Shots16
5On target5
5Corners5
1.79xG1.45

Goals against chances

San Jose Earthquakes2 from 1.79 xGabout what the chances were worth
Real Salt Lake1 from 1.45 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

San Jose Earthquakes 3-4-1-2
  • 36E. EdwardsG
  • 5D. MunieD
  • 4D. RomneyD
  • 18R. RobertsD
  • 28B. KikanovicM
  • 6I. HarkesM
  • 20N. FernandezM
  • 2J. RickettsM
  • 10N. TsakirisM
  • 19P. JuddF
  • 7O. BoudaF
Substitutes
  • 1A. GunnG
  • 25M. FlorianiD
  • 87Vítor CostaD
  • 17Jack JasinskiD
  • 9L. JovanovićF
  • 34Beau LerouxM
  • 23E. LöwenM
  • 16J. SkahanM
  • 14R. VieiraM
Coach: B. Arena
Real Salt Lake 3-4-2-1
  • 1Rafael CabralG
  • 44L. De FougerollesD
  • 15J. GladD
  • 26P. QuintonD
  • 11D. MarczukM
  • 6S. SpieringsM
  • 92N. CaliskanM
  • 29S. JunquaM
  • 12S. LobzhanidzeM
  • 8J. SanabriaM
  • 22S. SolansF
Substitutes
  • 23Chadwick Zachary BoothM
  • 4L. EngelD
  • 25Colin GuskeM
  • 3K. HenryD
  • 39A. HezarkhaniF
  • 98A. KatránisD
  • 19A. PiolF
  • 31M. StajduharG
  • 2D. YedlinD
Coach: P. Mastroeni

Form going into San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake

San Jose Earthquakes

Major League Soccer

  • D2-2Colorado Rapids29 October 2026
  • L0-3away to FC Dallas25 October 2026
  • D1-1Nashville SC18 October 2026

Real Salt Lake

Major League Soccer

  • W2-1away to Austin29 October 2026
  • W3-0St. Louis City25 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Sporting Kansas City18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4San Jose Earthquakes341410105751+652
9Real Salt Lake34136155352+145

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake

  • 15 October 2026Real Salt Lake 1–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 27 July 2025Real Salt Lake 2–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 23 February 2025San Jose Earthquakes 4–0 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
  • 6 October 2024San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
  • 25 August 2024Real Salt Lake 0–2 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 17 September 2023San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: San Jose Earthquakes and Real Salt Lake

San Jose Earthquakes

GoalsAssists

  • P. Judd172

Real Salt Lake

GoalsAssists

  • S. Solans154

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

San Jose Earthquakes beat Real Salt Lake 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for San Jose Earthquakes at 42%. The goals: Ousseni Bouda 2' for San Jose Earthquakes, Benjamin Kikanovic 17' for San Jose Earthquakes, Juan Sanabria 23' for Real Salt Lake. On expected goals it finished 1.79–1.45.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Real Salt Lake a 72.8% chance to finish in the top nine: 94.1% after a win, 74.4% after a draw, 58.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.8%, 14 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on San Jose Earthquakes v Real Salt Lake has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 48% / 26% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 42% / 26% / 32%: the biggest move is San Jose Earthquakes's chance of winning, down 6 points.

  1. San Jose Earthquakes win42%▼ −6
  2. Draw26%=
  3. Real Salt Lake win32%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.