St. Louis City vs San Diego Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: St. Louis City 0-1 San Diego.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% St. Louis City, 21% draw, 24% San Diego — fair odds of 1.82, 4.76 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
St. Louis City at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St. Louis City vs San Diego
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 39B. LundtG
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 21D. PolvaraD
- 6C. WallemM
- 8C. DurkinM
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 14T. TotlandM
- 19C. HolseF
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 77Jeong Sang-BinF
- 18C. BrunetM
- 11S. BecherF
- 42D. DownsF
- 4M. FallD
- 27F. FallD
- 48Riley LynchF
- 31C. OlivaresG
- 99J. OrozcoD
- 7T. OstrákM
- 13P. SisniegaG
- 3D. ÞórhallssonD
- 97C. McVeyD
- 32I. MurphyD
- 5Kieran SargeantD
- 70A. AlvaradoM
- 15P. SomaM
- 8O. ValakariM
- 10A. DreyerF
- 7M. IngvartsenF
- 14B. B. ZambleF
- 1C. dos SantosG
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 26M. DuahM
- 6J. TverskovM
- 20A. GodoyM
- 12Gabriel PiraniM
- 19D. VazquezM
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 36David MimbangM
Form going into St. Louis City vs San Diego
St. Louis City
Major League Soccer
- L2-3Portland Timbers29 October 2026
- L0-3away to Real Salt Lake25 October 2026
- L2-3away to Minnesota United FC17 October 2026
San Diego
Major League Soccer
- L1-4away to Vancouver Whitecaps29 October 2026
- D2-2Seattle Sounders25 October 2026
- D2-2away to Los Angeles Galaxy18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | St. Louis City | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 54 |
| 13 | San Diego | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 57 | 63 | -6 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St. Louis City vs San Diego
- 2 March 2026San Diego 2–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 11 May 2025St. Louis City 1–2 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 2 March 2025San Diego 0–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: St. Louis City and San Diego
St. Louis City
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Navarro196
San Diego
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 57 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
San Diego won 1–0 at St. Louis City. The model had leaned towards a win for St. Louis City at 55% and given a win for San Diego 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Anders Dreyer 39' for San Diego. On expected goals it finished 1.39–0.81.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave San Diego a 73.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 33.6% after a win, 74.1% after a draw, 87.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.6%, 39.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on St. Louis City v San Diego has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 58% / 21% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 55% / 21% / 24%: the biggest move is St. Louis City's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- St. Louis City win55%▼ −3
- Draw21%=
- San Diego win24%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.