31 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas Major League Soccer prediction & result

Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City
Referee: F. Bazakos
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Sporting Kansas City 1-1 FC Dallas.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Sporting Kansas City, 23% draw, 50% FC Dallas — fair odds of 3.70, 4.35 and 2.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Dallas at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sporting Kansas City4%Draw90%FC Dallas6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
⚽Herman Johanssonassist: Ran Binyamin
26'
Lalas Abubakar
Jacob Bartlett
39'
⚽Jansen Millerassist: Owen Wolff
45+2'
45'
🔁Santiago Morenoout: Petar Musa
52'
Sebastien Ibeagha
Owen Wolff
58'
🔁Ruben Ramos Jrout: Stephen Afrifa
61'
🔁Osvaldo Pedro Capembaout: Calvin Harris
61'
🔁Owen Wolffout: Lasse Berg Johnsen
61'
Jacob Davis
64'
69'
🔁Herman Johanssonout: Bernard Kamungo
69'
🔁Ramiroout: Christian Cappis
79'
🔁Daniel Jobout: Samuel Sarver
83'
Osaze Urhoghide
🔁Emir Karicout: Jayden Reid
83'
89'
Samuel Sarver
🔁Jacob Bartlettout: Ian James
90+2'
90+3'
🔁Joaquín Valiente Cioliout: Anderson Julio
90+5'
•Anderson Julio
90+7'
⚽Petar Musa (pen)

Match stats — Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas

55%Possession45%
8Shots10
4On target2
3Corners7
1.03xG1.76

Goals against chances

Sporting Kansas City1 from 1.03 xGabout what the chances were worth
FC Dallas1 from 1.76 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sporting Kansas City 4-4-2
  • 30S. ClevelandG
  • 8J. DavisD
  • 15Jansen MillerD
  • 28Wyatt MeyerD
  • 18E. KarićD
  • 11André LuizM
  • 16J. BartlettM
  • 33O. WolffM
  • 7CapitaM
  • 19T. CalheiraF
  • 24R. RamosF
Substitutes
  • 17S. AfrifaF
  • 23E. BartlowD
  • 14C. HarrisF
  • 2I. JamesD
  • 4L. JohnsenM
  • 1J. PulskampG
  • 99J. ReidD
  • 93M. SuleymanovF
  • 42Alexander CunninghamD
Coach: R. Wicky
FC Dallas 3-4-2-1
  • 40J. SiroisG
  • 25S. IbeaghaD
  • 3O. UrhoghideD
  • 5L. AbubakarD
  • 14H. JohanssonM
  • 55KaickM
  • 17RamiroM
  • 6R. BinyaminM
  • 21J. ValienteM
  • 7D. JobM
  • 10S. MorenoF
Substitutes
  • 9P. MusaF
  • 28Samuel SarverF
  • 27Caleb SwannM
  • 77B. KamungoF
  • 11A. JulioF
  • 8P. DelgadoM
  • 42DanielG
  • 12C. CappisM
  • 22Alvaro AugustoD
Coach: Eric Quill

Form going into Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas

Sporting Kansas City

Major League Soccer

  • L1-3away to Minnesota United FC29 October 2026
  • L1-2Austin25 October 2026
  • L1-3Real Salt Lake18 October 2026

FC Dallas

Major League Soccer

  • L0-2Columbus Crew29 October 2026
  • W3-0San Jose Earthquakes25 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Houston Dynamo18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Sporting Kansas City3475224081-4126
2FC Dallas34161086251+1158

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas

  • 6 September 2026FC Dallas 4–3 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
  • 15 June 2025Sporting Kansas City 2–4 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
  • 30 March 2025FC Dallas 2–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
  • 20 October 2024FC Dallas 2–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
  • 11 July 2024Sporting Kansas City 2–1 FC DallasUS Open Cup
  • 8 July 2024Sporting Kansas City 3–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Sporting Kansas City and FC Dallas

Sporting Kansas City

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.

FC Dallas

GoalsAssists

  • P. Musa225

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sporting Kansas City and FC Dallas drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Dallas at 50% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Herman Johansson 19' for FC Dallas, Jansen Miller 45+2' for Sporting Kansas City. On expected goals it finished 1.03–1.76.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Dallas a 3.8% chance to finish top of the Western Conference: 6.7% after a win, 0.0% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 0.0%, 3.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sporting Kansas City v FC Dallas has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 30% / 23% / 47% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 27% / 23% / 50%: the biggest move is Sporting Kansas City's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Sporting Kansas City win27%▼ −3
  2. Draw23%=
  3. FC Dallas win50%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.