Vizela vs Academica Segunda Liga prediction & result
Final score: Vizela 2-1 Academica.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Vizela, 27% draw, 38% Academica — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Liga Portugal 2 predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Academica at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vizela vs Academica
Line-ups
- 1Antonio GomisG
- 26L. MinaD
- 6Giovani BambaM
- 55A. HristovD
- 20B. GodwinD
- 95A. TraoréM
- 31NetoM
- 23Y. FortunéF
- 24H. MörschelM
- 36M. LacavaF
- 99A. CarterF
- 13Luís RochaD
- 8A. BastunovM
- 11N. ThioF
- 17Miguel TavaresF
- 9Manu GarridoF
- 22Lucas AntañónF
- 70C. CañozalesF
- 19A. VulićG
- 98M. SanogoM
- 12Victor BragaG
- 2XaviD
- 3Ricardo TeixeiraD
- 4Guilherme Willian da SilvaD
- 15KakaD
- 25L. PierreM
- 5Leandro SilvaD
- 20J. SinisterraM
- 23Rui GomesF
- 92A. CoundoulM
- 7Alioune ManéF
- 9Martim TavaresF
- 1Nuno MacedoG
- 60João OliveiraM
- 46H. NunesM
- 17Marcos PauloM
- 54NiD
- 44P. TexelD
- 22Hélder LopesD
- 13KauanD
Form going into Vizela vs Academica
Vizela
Segunda Liga
- L1-2away to Chaves23 October 2026
- L0-2Sporting CP B10 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Porto B14 September 2026
Academica
Segunda Liga
- W4-0Leixoes24 October 2026
- W2-0away to União de Leiria11 October 2026
- L0-3Benfica B11 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Vizela | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 6 | Academica | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vizela vs Academica
- 13 March 2021Academica 1–3 VizelaSegunda Liga
- 24 October 2020Vizela 1–3 AcademicaSegunda Liga
- 5 March 2017Vizela 0–1 AcademicaSegunda Liga
- 4 September 2016Academica 0–1 VizelaSegunda Liga
Leading scorers: Vizela and Academica
Vizela
No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Academica
GoalsAssists
- K. Zohi10
- Leandro Silva10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Vizela beat Academica 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Academica at 38% and given a win for Vizela 35%. The goals: Yassin Fortune 13' for Vizela, Hélder Lopes 87' for Academica, Matías Lacava 90+3' for Vizela. Sent off: Guilherme Willian da Silva (Academica) 61'.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vizela a 17.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 12.7% after a win, 16.8% after a draw, 19.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.7%, 4.3 points lower than before the match.
For Academica the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 42.0% going in: 48.5% after a win, 39.9% after a draw, 35.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.9%, 6.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Vizela v Academica has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 43% / 27% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 35% / 27% / 38%: the biggest move is Vizela's chance of winning, down 8 points.
- Vizela win35%▼ −8
- Draw27%=
- Academica win38%▲ +8
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.