Rennes vs OFI UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Rennes 2-1 OFI.
Before kick-off the model made it 65% Rennes, 19% draw, 16% OFI — fair odds of 1.54, 5.26 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Europa League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Rennes at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rennes vs OFI
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30B. SambaG
- 95P. FrankowskiD
- 4C. CresswellD
- 48A. Ait BoudlalD
- 18M. NagidaD
- 17S. SzymańskiM
- 21V. RongierM
- 45M. CamaraM
- 10L. BlasF
- 9E. LepaulF
- 11Mousa TamariF
- 28A. ThomassonM
- 90I. SoumaréF
- 24A. RouaultD
- 14B. ReynoldsD
- 5Gonçalo OliveiraD
- 70A. NordinF
- 26Q. MerlinD
- 12Eliezer MayendaF
- 16N. LemaîtreG
- 31N. ChristogeorgosG
- 15A. PoungourasD
- 43D. NikolaouD
- 2K. KrizmanićD
- 24L. DickmannM
- 14T. AndroutsosM
- 41A. BouchalakisM
- 3N. AthanasiouM
- 11T. FountasF
- 19K. KodroF
- 18T. NussF
- 10Aitor CantalapiedraF
- 17Borja GonzálezD
- 8G. KanellópoulosM
- 6Z. KarachaliosM
- 13P. KatsikasG
- 90Pavlos KenourgiakisD
- 5K. KostoulasD
- 1K. LiloG
- 30T. RomanoF
Form going into Rennes vs OFI
Rennes
UEFA Europa League
- D0-0away to Sturm Graz16 September 2026
OFI
UEFA Europa League
- W2-01899 Hoffenheim17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Rennes | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 16 | OFI | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Rennes beat OFI 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Rennes at 65%. The goals: Taxiarchis Fountas 10' for OFI, Mahamadou Nagida 76' for Rennes, Abdelhamid Aït Boudlal 90' for Rennes. On expected goals it finished 1.54–0.12.
How the call on Rennes v OFI has moved
First published on 1 Oct at 57% / 23% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 65% / 19% / 16%: the biggest move is Rennes's chance of winning, up 8 points.
- Rennes win65%▲ +8
- Draw19%▼ −4
- OFI win16%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.