Lyon vs Rennes Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Lyon 4-0 Rennes.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Lyon, 29% draw, 32% Rennes — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Lyon at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lyon vs Rennes
Line-ups
- 1D. GreifG
- 13Z. AthekameD
- 20F. BacherD
- 19M. NiakhatéD
- 16AbnerD
- 2M. BidstrupM
- 23T. MortonM
- 7E. NuamahM
- 10P. ŠulcM
- 8C. TolissoM
- 17L. OpendaF
- 6T. TessmannM
- 26K. BoudacheF
- 40R. DescampsG
- 21R. KluivertD
- 22Clinton MataD
- 18K. MerahM
- 11Keito NakamuraF
- 99N. NarteyM
- 76M. OuédraogoD
- 30B. SambaG
- 95P. FrankowskiD
- 4C. CresswellD
- 48A. Ait BoudlalD
- 26Q. MerlinD
- 21V. RongierM
- 70A. NordinM
- 28A. ThomassonM
- 45M. CamaraM
- 12Eliezer MayendaM
- 22B. DiaF
- 10L. BlasF
- 65H. Do MarcolinoF
- 16N. LemaîtreG
- 9E. LepaulF
- 18M. NagidaD
- 14B. ReynoldsD
- 24A. RouaultD
- 17S. SzymańskiM
- 11Mousa TamariF
Form going into Lyon vs Rennes
Lyon
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Anderlecht16 September 2026
- D0-0away to Paris FC12 September 2026
- W3-1Auxerre4 September 2026
- D1-1Le Havre29 August 2026
- L1-2Fenerbahçe26 August 2026
Rennes
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Sturm Graz16 September 2026
- W1-0Marseille11 September 2026
- W2-1away to Angers6 September 2026
- W3-2Le Mans30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Paris Saint Germain23 August 2026
What these results say
- Lyon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lyon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Lyon.
- Rennes went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Rennes scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lyon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 17 |
| 8 | Rennes | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lyon vs Rennes
- 3 May 2026Lyon 4–2 RennesLigue 1
- 14 September 2025Rennes 3–1 LyonLigue 1
- 26 April 2025Lyon 4–1 RennesLigue 1
- 18 August 2024Rennes 3–0 LyonLigue 1
- 26 January 2024Lyon 2–3 RennesLigue 1
Leading scorers: Lyon and Rennes
Lyon
GoalsAssists
- E. Nuamah41
Rennes
GoalsAssists
- E. Lepaul70
- B. Dia50
- S. Szymański41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Lyon beat Rennes 4–0. The model had made a win for Lyon its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ernest Nuamah 7' for Lyon, Ernest Nuamah 30' for Lyon, Zachary Athekame 48' for Lyon, Corentin Tolisso 76' for Lyon.
How the call on Lyon v Rennes has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 46% / 27% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Lyon's chance of winning, down 7 points.
- Lyon win39%▼ −7
- Draw29%▲ +2
- Rennes win32%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.