Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline Championship prediction & result
Final score: Raith Rovers 0-0 Dunfermline.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Raith Rovers, 29% draw, 30% Dunfermline — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Raith Rovers at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1J. Rae
- 22R. Millen
- 6J. Baird
- 4P. Hanlon
- 16L. Stevenson
- 20S. Brown
- 8K. Turner
- 18P. McMullan
- 14C. Adamson
- 15S. Tiffoney
- 9G. Oakley
- 13L. Armstrong
- 2J. Rowe
- 5C. Fordyce
- 7A. Lyall
- 10L. Vaughan
- 19A. Dowds
- 21C. Telfer
- 25K. Montagu
- 1A. Oxborough
- 24D. Lobban
- 6N. Abdulai
- 25A. Donnelly
- 47R. Fraser
- 22K. Bray
- 14A. Amade
- 19A. Oyirwoth
- 99O. Adams
- 10O. Shaw
- 26A. Tod
- 12M. Dibaga
- 3J. Tod
- 8C. Gilmour
- 9Z. Rudden
- 11S. Kearney
- 16R. MacLeod
- 17O. Thomas
- 18K. Corbally
- 20C. Kane
Form going into Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline
Raith Rovers
Championship
- W4-0away to Arbroath31 October 2026
- L0-2Inverness CT24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Stenhousemuir17 October 2026
Dunfermline
Championship
- W5-1Inverness CT31 October 2026
- W1-0away to Stenhousemuir27 October 2026
- W1-0away to Queen's Park24 October 2026
- D1-1Partick20 October 2026
What these results say
- Dunfermline went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Dunfermline scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Dunfermline won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Scotland Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 25 |
| 4 | Dunfermline | 14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline
- 28 August 2026Dunfermline 1–0 Raith RoversChampionship
- 14 March 2026Dunfermline 3–0 Raith RoversChampionship
- 27 December 2025Raith Rovers 1–2 DunfermlineChampionship
- 17 October 2025Dunfermline 2–0 Raith RoversChampionship
- 22 August 2025Raith Rovers 2–0 DunfermlineChampionship
- 14 March 2025Raith Rovers 2–0 DunfermlineChampionship
The result against the call
Raith Rovers and Dunfermline drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Raith Rovers at 41% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Raith Rovers a 78.2% chance to finish in the top four: 83.6% after a win, 77.5% after a draw, 72.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 77.5%, 0.7 points lower than before the match.
For Dunfermline the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 26.2% going in: 34.2% after a win, 25.0% after a draw, 20.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 25.0%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Raith Rovers v Dunfermline has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 47% / 28% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is Raith Rovers's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Raith Rovers win41%▼ −6
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Dunfermline win30%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.