Oviedo vs Las Palmas Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Oviedo 2-3 Las Palmas.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Oviedo, 26% draw, 25% Las Palmas — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Oviedo at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Oviedo vs Las Palmas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Aarón EscandellG
- 22Nacho VidalD
- 4David CostasD
- 23Carlos DomínguezD
- 15S. RodriguezD
- 20Pablo SáenzM
- 16Aritz AldasoroM
- 5Y. DidiM
- 32Enzo PerezM
- 18V. MingoF
- 8Mikel GotiF
- 7I. ChairaF
- 12Dani CalvoD
- 11Jacobo GonzálezF
- 24A. IșfanF
- 21David JiménezD
- 28D. MenendezM
- 25José Luis MoralesF
- 17EstanisF
- 10Alberto ReinaM
- 13José CaroG
- 25Valentín PezzolesiD
- 4Álex SuárezD
- 15Juan HerzogD
- 23A. RodriguezD
- 24Iván JaimeM
- 20Kirian RodríguezM
- 12E. LoiodiceM
- 11T. MiyashiroM
- 10JeséF
- 14Manu FusterF
- 26A. BassingaM
- 7Jefté BetancorF
- 21G. BonfantiD
- 32Rafa CruzF
- 22Ale GarcíaM
- 3N. OpokuD
- 9J. RecobaM
- 44Adrián Rodríguez del RosarioD
- 29Elías RomeroF
Form going into Oviedo vs Las Palmas
Oviedo
Segunda División
- D2-2away to Almeria24 October 2026
- W2-1away to AD Ceuta FC18 October 2026
Las Palmas
Segunda División
- W1-0Real Sociedad II24 October 2026
- L0-3Castellón17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Mallorca11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Oviedo | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 21 |
| 11 | Las Palmas | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Oviedo vs Las Palmas
- 9 April 2023Las Palmas 0–1 OviedoSegunda División
- 6 December 2022Oviedo 0–0 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 21 May 2022Las Palmas 2–1 OviedoSegunda División
- 6 November 2021Oviedo 1–1 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 10 April 2021Oviedo 0–0 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 31 October 2020Las Palmas 1–2 OviedoSegunda División
Leading scorers: Oviedo and Las Palmas
Oviedo
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Domínguez50
Las Palmas
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Las Palmas won 3–2 at Oviedo. The model had leaned towards a win for Oviedo at 49% and given a win for Las Palmas 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Manu Fuster 21' for Las Palmas, Jesé Rodríguez (penalty) 26' for Las Palmas, Taisei Miyashiro 54' for Las Palmas, Carlos Dominguez 62' for Oviedo, Mikel Goti Lopez 80' for Oviedo. On expected goals it finished 1.74–1.68.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Oviedo a 6.6% chance to finish in the top two: 7.5% after a win, 5.3% after a draw, 4.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.3%, 2.3 points lower than before the match.
For Las Palmas the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 16.0% going in: 9.9% after a win, 15.4% after a draw, 17.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.9%, 6.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Oviedo v Las Palmas has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 52% / 26% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 49% / 26% / 25%: the biggest move is Oviedo's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Oviedo win49%▼ −3
- Draw26%=
- Las Palmas win25%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.