Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Union St. Gilloise 1-1 Real Sociedad.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Union St. Gilloise, 22% draw, 17% Real Sociedad — fair odds of 1.64, 4.55 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Union St. Gilloise at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12H. KoffiG
- 4N. ChibaniD
- 29M. SyllaD
- 55N. HavenaarD
- 6K. Van de PerreM
- 27L. PatrisM
- 23B. ZeneliM
- 28D. OlaruM
- 11Guilherme Henriques da Silva CarvalhoM
- 9M. BiondicF
- 38R. MofokengF
- 21D. De RoeveD
- 39youssef hamoutaharF
- 18G. KavelashviliG
- 43Daniel Tshilanda KabongoD
- 1V. ChambaereG
- 20D. AquinoF
- 32S. KeitaF
- 13Unai MarreroG
- 5ZubeldiaD
- 6Jon MartínD
- 19M. SarrD
- 17Sergio GómezD
- 12J. OchiengM
- 4Jon GorrotxategiM
- 21Y. HerreraM
- 11Gonçalo GuedesM
- 24L. SučićF
- 10Mikel OyarzabalF
- 9O. ÓskarssonF
- 16Jon PachecoD
- 1Álex RemiroG
- 18Carlos SolerM
- 8Beñat TurrientesM
- 23A. ZakharyanM
- 7BarrenetxeaF
- 3Aihen MuñozD
- 15Pablo MarínM
Form going into Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad
Union St. Gilloise
UEFA Europa League
- W3-0away to Plzen17 September 2026
Real Sociedad
UEFA Europa League
- L1-2Bournemouth17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 10 |
| 20 | Real Sociedad | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Union St. Gilloise and Real Sociedad
Union St. Gilloise
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Real Sociedad
GoalsAssists
- Sergio Gómez30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Union St. Gilloise and Real Sociedad drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Union St. Gilloise at 61% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Benat Turrientes 46' for Real Sociedad, Sekou Abrahame Keita 88' for Union St. Gilloise. On expected goals it finished 2.09–0.65.
How the call on Union St. Gilloise v Real Sociedad has moved
First published on 1 Oct at 56% / 25% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 61% / 22% / 17%: the biggest move is Union St. Gilloise's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Union St. Gilloise win61%▲ +5
- Draw22%▼ −3
- Real Sociedad win17%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.