17 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Metz vs Sochaux Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz
Referee: Gael Angoula
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Metz 3-2 Sochaux.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Metz, 31% draw, 23% Sochaux — fair odds of 2.17, 3.23 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Metz at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Saad Agouzoul (OG)
10'
⚽Giorgi Abuashviliassist: Bouna Sarr
28'
45'
🔁Landry Nomelout: Mathis Clairicia
45'
🔁Yohan Demoncyout: Louicius Deedson
46'
⚽Benjamin Gomelassist: Bakary Diawara
Teji Savanier
48'
🔁Bouna Sarrout: Bryan Rigobert Song Bahanag
53'
61'
Benjamin Gomel
68'
🔁Dalangunypole Gomisout: Dylan Tavares
⚽Teji Savanier
77'
🔁Cristian Castroout: Maxime Colin
79'
🔁Giorgi Abuashviliout: Florian Miguel
79'
83'
🔁Kapitbafan Djocoout: Samy Baghdadi
83'
🔁Benjamin Gomelout: Boubacar Fofana
🔁Abdourahmane Mbodjout: Nathan Mbala
88'
90+2'
⚽Louicius Deedsonassist: Samy Baghdadi

Match stats — Metz vs Sochaux

58%Possession42%
13Shots18
5On target4
5Corners5
1.72xG1.85

Goals against chances

Metz3 from 1.72 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sochaux2 from 1.85 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Metz 3-1-4-2
  • 1J. FischerG
  • 42C. DevenishD
  • 5J. RuizD
  • 4U. MboulaD
  • 98I. MohamedM
  • 70B. SarrM
  • 8J. DeminguetM
  • 10T. SavanierM
  • 9G. AbuashviliM
  • 33Abdourahmane MbodjF
  • 11P. FallF
Substitutes
  • 2M. ColinD
  • 38H. KadamaniM
  • 22N. MbalaF
  • 18B. MunongoM
  • 7Ibou SanéF
  • 39B. SongD
  • 3F. MiguelD
  • 61P. SyG
  • 12A. TouréM
Coach: Grégory Proment
Sochaux 4-2-3-1
  • 40M. JeanninG
  • 26E. N'GattaD
  • 14M. PeybernesD
  • 97S. AgouzoulD
  • 3D. GomisD
  • 21B. DiawaraM
  • 23J. MassonM
  • 77L. NomelM
  • 24Y. DemoncyM
  • 7B. GomelM
  • 9K. DjocoF
Substitutes
  • 42Dylan TavaresD
  • 5S. BaghdadiF
  • 8Honoré BayanginisaM
  • 91M. ClairiciaF
  • 11L. DeedsonF
  • 10B. FofanaF
  • 44N. K. MouyemaF
  • 15J. MexiqueM
  • 30A. PierreG
Coach: Vincent Hognon

Form going into Metz vs Sochaux

Metz

Ligue 2

  • L2-4away to Dijon12 October 2026

Sochaux

Ligue 2

  • D1-1Boulogne9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Metz124532019+117
16Sochaux12255815-711

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Metz vs Sochaux

  • 22 July 2026Metz 4–1 SochauxFriendlies Clubs
  • 26 May 2023Sochaux 0–1 MetzLigue 2
  • 15 October 2022Metz 0–0 SochauxLigue 2
  • 23 July 2022Metz 1–0 SochauxFriendlies Clubs
  • 11 March 2019Metz 1–1 SochauxLigue 2

Leading scorers: Metz and Sochaux

Metz

GoalsAssists

  • P. Fall81
  • J. Deminguet33

Sochaux

No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Metz beat Sochaux 3–2. The model had made a win for Metz its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Saad Agouzoul (own goal) 10' for Metz, Giorgi Abuashvili 28' for Metz, Benjamin Gomel 46' for Sochaux, Teji Savanier 77' for Metz, Louicius Deedson 90+2' for Sochaux. On expected goals it finished 1.72–1.85.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Metz a 31.0% chance to finish in the top four: 35.7% after a win, 27.8% after a draw, 23.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.7%, 4.7 points higher than before the match.

For Sochaux the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 12.5% going in: 7.8% after a win, 12.6% after a draw, 13.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.8%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Metz v Sochaux has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 42% / 32% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 46% / 31% / 23%: the biggest move is Metz's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Metz win46%▲ +4
  2. Draw31%▼ −1
  3. Sochaux win23%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.