Southampton vs Bolton Championship prediction & result
Final score: Southampton 0-0 Bolton.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Southampton, 22% draw, 18% Bolton — fair odds of 1.67, 4.55 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Southampton at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Southampton vs Bolton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Daniel PeretzG
- 14J. BreeD
- 5J. StephensD
- 13K. SchlotterbeckD
- 34WelingtonD
- 30J. Ward-ProwseM
- 26Cameron BraggM
- 18T. FellowsM
- 10F. AzazM
- 7Léo ScienzaM
- 9C. LarinF
- 25G. LongG
- 8C. JanderM
- 23S. EdozieM
- 11L. DobbinF
- 6Z. AbbottD
- 27K. MatsukiM
- 28D. MubamaF
- 3R. ManningD
- 15N. Wood-GordonD
- 31G. BazunuG
- 27Luca StephensonD
- 18E. ToalD
- 5L. BruntD
- 14A. FamewoD
- 8J. SheehanM
- 4X. SimonsM
- 22Gaizka LarrazabalM
- 17A. ItoM
- 11T. GaleM
- 10S. DalbyF
- 1J. BonhamG
- 25M. ConwayD
- 6B. DaviesD
- 7K. DongF
- 21E. ErhahonM
- 39R. HardieF
- 16S. Iling-JuniorF
- 20Ruben RodriguesF
- 9T. BairF
Form going into Southampton vs Bolton
Southampton
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Norwich14 October 2026
- W1-0Portsmouth11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Wrexham19 September 2026
- W4-1Bristol City12 September 2026
- W3-1Swansea8 September 2026
Bolton
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Wolves13 October 2026
- L1-2Stoke City10 October 2026
- W4-3away to Norwich20 September 2026
- W1-0Cardiff12 September 2026
- L2-3West Ham8 September 2026
What these results say
- Southampton scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Southampton won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bolton scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bolton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bolton had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 15 | +14 | 24 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Southampton and Bolton
Southampton
GoalsAssists
- C. Larin70
Bolton
GoalsAssists
- S. Dalby60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Southampton and Bolton drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Southampton at 60% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.91–1.24.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Southampton a 58.1% chance to finish in the top four: 60.9% after a win, 54.7% after a draw, 50.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 54.7%, 3.4 points lower than before the match.
For Bolton the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 3.7% going in: 6.0% after a win, 3.6% after a draw, 3.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 3.6%.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Southampton v Bolton has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 56% / 24% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 60% / 22% / 18%: the biggest move is Southampton's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Southampton win60%▲ +4
- Draw22%▼ −2
- Bolton win18%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.