17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec I Liga prediction & result

Legnica
Referee: A. Rozycki
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Miedz Legnica 3-0 Stal Mielec.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Miedz Legnica, 24% draw, 22% Stal Mielec — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Miedz Legnica at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Miedz Legnica99%Draw1%Stal Mielec0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•K. Antonik
13'
15'
P. Tupaj
⚽W. Hajda
34'
35'
K. Cybulski
43'
E. Ziobron
46'
🔁E. Ziobronout: T. Gmur
⚽K. Fucakassist: D. Sydorenko
49'
52'
M. Cebula
🔁K. Antonikout: G. Norlin
58'
65'
🔁K. Cybulskiout: S. Oure
65'
🔁P. Tupajout: B. Kukulowicz
🔁K. Noiszewskiout: M. Mazur
68'
🔁M. Bochnakout: D. Stanclik
68'
72'
🔁H. Matyniaout: K. Getinger
🔁K. Fucakout: J. Letniowski
77'
80'
🔁M. Cebulaout: M. Domanski
⚽A. Cordobaassist: J. Letniowski
82'
90'
B. Kwiecien

Form going into Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec

Miedz Legnica

I Liga

  • L0-1away to Odra Opole11 October 2026

Stal Mielec

I Liga

  • W2-1Warta Poznań11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Miedz Legnica145542013+720
11Stal Mielec145451927-819

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec

  • 2 May 2026Miedz Legnica 1–0 Stal MielecI Liga
  • 26 October 2025Stal Mielec 1–2 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
  • 17 April 2023Stal Mielec 1–1 Miedz LegnicaEkstraklasa
  • 2 October 2022Miedz Legnica 0–2 Stal MielecEkstraklasa
  • 2 June 2020Miedz Legnica 1–2 Stal MielecI Liga

The result against the call

Miedz Legnica beat Stal Mielec 3–0. The model had made a win for Miedz Legnica its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: W. Hajda 34' for Miedz Legnica, K. Fucak 49' for Miedz Legnica, A. Cordoba 82' for Miedz Legnica.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Miedz Legnica a 20.2% chance to finish in the top four: 22.9% after a win, 16.8% after a draw, 13.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.9%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

For Stal Mielec the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 36.9% going in: 28.5% after a win, 34.8% after a draw, 40.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.3%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Miedz Legnica v Stal Mielec has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 51% / 25% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 54% / 24% / 22%: the biggest move is Miedz Legnica's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Miedz Legnica win54%▲ +3
  2. Draw24%▼ −1
  3. Stal Mielec win22%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.