17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa I Liga prediction & result

Stadion Miejski, Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Referee: P. Urban
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 0-1 Polonia Warszawa.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, 26% draw, 26% Polonia Warszawa — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki0%Draw5%Polonia Warszawa95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

J. Konstantyn
13'
H. Uzoigwe
13'
22'
R. Dadok
A. Oshafi
41'
🔁H. Uzoigweout: M. Ruszkiewicz
46'
57'
M. Kuusk
🔁J. Konstantynout: N. Niski
59'
62'
🔁R. Dadokout: E. Terpilowski
70'
P. Janasik
71'
🔁P. Janasikout: I. Durmus
71'
🔁S. Skrabbout: S. Kowalczyk
71'
🔁J. Paszkowskiout: A. Kapusta
🔁R. Majewskiout: D. Jaron
72'
🔁A. Oshafiout: H. Turski
72'
78'
🔁G. Barkovskiyout: K. Kostorz
85'
⚽D. Gnaaseassist: K. Kostorz
🔁J. Zbrogout: J. Jedrasik
88'

Form going into Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

I Liga

  • W4-0away to Chrobry Głogów10 October 2026

Polonia Warszawa

I Liga

  • W2-1away to Arka Gdynia10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki146352014+621
1Polonia Warszawa147432315+825

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa

  • 14 March 2026Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3–2 Polonia WarszawaI Liga
  • 30 August 2025Polonia Warszawa 2–1 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiI Liga
  • 18 January 2025Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3–1 Polonia WarszawaFriendlies Clubs
  • 12 July 2024Polonia Warszawa 2–4 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiFriendlies Clubs
  • 15 May 2021Polonia Warszawa 0–2 Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiIII Liga - Group 1

The result against the call

Polonia Warszawa won 1–0 at Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. The model had leaned towards a win for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 48% and given a win for Polonia Warszawa 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: D. Gnaase 85' for Polonia Warszawa.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki a 54.9% chance to finish in the top four: 60.8% after a win, 51.1% after a draw, 47.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 47.4%, 7.5 points lower than before the match.

For Polonia Warszawa the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 31.5% going in: 39.4% after a win, 31.2% after a draw, 26.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.4%, 7.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki v Polonia Warszawa has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 48% / 26% / 26%: the biggest move is Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win48%▲ +7
  2. Draw26%▼ −3
  3. Polonia Warszawa win26%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.