Swansea vs West Ham Championship prediction & result
Final score: Swansea 0-1 West Ham.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Swansea, 30% draw, 34% West Ham — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Swansea at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Swansea vs West Ham
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22L. VigourouxG
- 35RonaldD
- 5B. CabangoD
- 23S. WelshD
- 14J. TymonD
- 17Gonçalo FrancoM
- 4J. FultonM
- 6M. StamenićM
- 49M. YeoF
- 33A. IdahF
- 30Joseph OkopuF
- 10Eom Ji-SungF
- 46S. EustáquioM
- 1A. FisherG
- 50C. HeywoodD
- 8E. JustF
- 3J. SeeltD
- 9Z. VipotnikF
- 7M. WidellM
- 44Thomas WoodwardM
- 1M. HermansenG
- 34J. VeltmanD
- 15K. MavropanosD
- 3M. KilmanD
- 5MoratoD
- 17M. KantéM
- 7A. EngelsM
- 20J. BowenM
- 14D. MukasaM
- 10M. SolomonM
- 19PabloF
- 30O. ScarlesD
- 28T. SoučekM
- 2K. Walker-PetersD
- 9J. PiroeF
- 61L. OrfordM
- 58A. GolambeckisD
- 11V. CastellanosF
- 35E. AustböF
- 23A. AreolaG
Form going into Swansea vs West Ham
Swansea
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Millwall13 October 2026
- W2-1Norwich10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Lincoln19 September 2026
- W3-1Burnley12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Southampton8 September 2026
West Ham
All competitions we cover
- W6-0away to Lincoln14 October 2026
- D1-1QPR9 October 2026
- D2-2away to Millwall19 September 2026
- W6-0Wrexham11 September 2026
- W3-2away to Bolton8 September 2026
What these results say
- Swansea scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Swansea won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Swansea conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- West Ham went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- West Ham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for West Ham had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 26 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 37 | 23 | +14 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Swansea vs West Ham
- 3 March 2018Swansea 4–1 West HamPremier League
- 30 September 2017West Ham 1–0 SwanseaPremier League
- 8 April 2017West Ham 1–0 SwanseaPremier League
- 26 December 2016Swansea 1–4 West HamPremier League
- 7 May 2016West Ham 1–4 SwanseaPremier League
- 20 December 2015Swansea 0–0 West HamPremier League
Leading scorers: Swansea and West Ham
Swansea
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
West Ham
GoalsAssists
- J. Bowen77
- K. Mavropanos50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
West Ham won 1–0 at Swansea. The model had leaned towards a win for Swansea at 36% and given a win for West Ham 34%. The goal: Divine Mukasa 34' for West Ham. On expected goals it finished 1.08–1.21.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Swansea a 47.3% chance to finish in the top four: 53.1% after a win, 45.7% after a draw, 41.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.8%, 5.5 points lower than before the match.
For West Ham the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 67.5% going in: 73.6% after a win, 65.5% after a draw, 63.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 73.6%, 6.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.