17 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice Czech Liga prediction & result

Lokotrans Arena, Mlada Boleslav
Referee: Adam Trska
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Mlada Boleslav 1-0 Teplice.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Mlada Boleslav, 27% draw, 33% Teplice — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Mlada Boleslav at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mlada Boleslav96%Draw4%Teplice0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Jan Zíkaassist: Daniel Langhamer
25'
49'
Jan Fortelný
Daniel Langhamer
49'
59'
🔁Matej Radostaout: Idris Hopi
59'
🔁Jan Fortelnýout: Robert Jukl
65'
🔁Daniel Marečekout: Marcel Cermak
🔁Martin Šubertout: Josef Kolarik
67'
69'
Matyas Kozak
🔁Jiří Klímaout: Lukas Letenay
73'
🔁Jan Zíkaout: Denis Donat
73'
79'
🔁John Autaout: Ladislav Krejčí
79'
🔁Matyas Kozakout: Tomas Zlatohlavek
🔁Daniel Langhamerout: Filip Spatenka
85'
🔁Solomon Johnout: Matej Zachoval
85'
Filip Matousek
90'

Match stats — Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice

52%Possession48%
9Shots20
3On target2
3Corners8
1.04xG1.63

Goals against chances

Mlada Boleslav1 from 1.04 xGabout what the chances were worth
Teplice0 from 1.63 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Mlada Boleslav 4-2-3-1
  • 42V. VorelG
  • 32F. MatoušekD
  • 44O. KarafiátD
  • 3M. KrálikD
  • 11M. HybšD
  • 19D. KozelM
  • 76Jan ZikaM
  • 20S. JohnM
  • 28D. LanghamerM
  • 21M. ŠubertM
  • 23J. KlímaF
Substitutes
  • 70J. BuryánF
  • 13D. DonátD
  • 59J. FloderG
  • 14S. GrygarM
  • 5J. HarušťákD
  • 18M. HavranM
  • 49J. KoláříkM
  • 9L. LetenayF
  • 17F. ŠpatenkaF
Coach: A. Majer
Teplice 4-4-2
  • 29M. TrmalG
  • 3J. ŠvandaD
  • 4O. VientiessD
  • 28D. VečerkaD
  • 25M. RizničD
  • 35M. RadostaM
  • 8J. FortelnýM
  • 23L. MarečekM
  • 17John AutaM
  • 37D. MarečekF
  • 11M. KozákF
Substitutes
  • 7A. BadamosiF
  • 22L. TakácsD
  • 31K. LichtenbergG
  • 14Ladislav Krejčí IM
  • 19R. JuklM
  • 5J. JakubkoD
  • 21I. HopiF
  • 15J. HarušťákD
  • 12M. ČermákM
Coach: Z. Frťala

Form going into Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice

Mlada Boleslav

Czech Liga

  • L0-1away to Bohemians 190514 October 2026

Teplice

Czech Liga

  • D1-1Sigma Olomouc11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Mlada Boleslav147432215+725
6Teplice146352222021

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice

  • 23 May 2026Mlada Boleslav 0–2 TepliceCzech Liga
  • 15 February 2026Mlada Boleslav 0–0 TepliceCzech Liga
  • 13 September 2025Teplice 2–3 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga
  • 4 May 2025Mlada Boleslav 1–0 TepliceCzech Liga
  • 8 February 2025Mlada Boleslav 2–1 TepliceCzech Liga
  • 1 September 2024Teplice 1–2 Mlada BoleslavCzech Liga

Leading scorers: Mlada Boleslav and Teplice

Mlada Boleslav

GoalsAssists

  • M. Šubert71
  • J. Klíma41

Teplice

GoalsAssists

  • M. Pulkrab43
  • John Auta40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Mlada Boleslav beat Teplice 1–0. The model had made a win for Mlada Boleslav its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Jan Zíka 25' for Mlada Boleslav. On expected goals it finished 1.04–1.63.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mlada Boleslav a 23.5% chance to finish in the top four: 29.7% after a win, 21.5% after a draw, 16.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.7%, 6.2 points higher than before the match.

For Teplice the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 35.6% going in: 42.6% after a win, 35.8% after a draw, 29.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.1%, 6.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.