18 October 2026, 12:30 UTC

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg Eliteserien prediction & result

Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg
Referee: Espen Eskas
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-3 Rosenborg.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Sarpsborg 08 FF, 26% draw, 40% Rosenborg — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rosenborg at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sarpsborg 08 FF0%Draw1%Rosenborg99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

29'
⚽Aslak Fonn Witry
34'
Mathias Ullereng Kjolo
36'
⚽Adrian Nilsen Pereiraassist: Aslak Fonn Witry
Sander Johan Christiansen
43'
🔁Andreas Hansenout: Anders Hiim
45'
🔁Peter Reinhardsenout: Aimar Sher
45'
Daniel Seland Karlsbakk
57'
🔁Eirik Wichneout: Claus Babo Niyukuri
60'
61'
🔁Noah Sahsahout: Jesper Reitan Sunde
61'
🔁Maciej Soboczynskiout: Dino Islamović
65'
Mads Bomholt
🔁Sander Johan Christiansenout: Victor Emanuel Halvorsen
68'
70'
🔁Adrian Nilsen Pereiraout: Tobias Solheim Dahl
70'
🔁Mathias Ullereng Kjoloout: Iver Fossum
81'
🔁Dino Islamovićout: Jonas Sogaard Mortensen
🔁Noa Williamsout: Camil Mmaee Nwameben
81'
83'
Jonas Sogaard Mortensen
90+7'
⚽Jonas Sogaard Mortensen

Match stats — Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg

51%Possession49%
14Shots20
5On target6
7Corners8
0.95xG1.88

Goals against chances

Sarpsborg 08 FF0 from 0.95 xGless than the chances were worth
Rosenborg3 from 1.88 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-4-2
  • 87L. ØyG
  • 32E. WichneD
  • 4B. UtvikD
  • 24S. RostedD
  • 20P. ReinhardsenD
  • 10S. SørliM
  • 8S. ChristiansenM
  • 77O. SkarsemM
  • 17N. WilliamsM
  • 33A. NibeF
  • 11D. KarlsbakkF
Substitutes
  • 21A. HiimD
  • 22V. HalvorsenM
  • 12C. NiyukuriD
  • 5L. HøylandD
  • 2M. LodeD
  • 50M. M. EidalD
  • 7Camil Mmaee NwamebenM
  • 1J. PrytsG
  • 6A. SherM
Coach: E. Sel
Rosenborg 4-4-2
  • 1L. WahlstedtG
  • 16A. WitryD
  • 4M. CeïdeD
  • 23M. MampassiD
  • 19A. PereiraD
  • 11N. SahsahM
  • 17M. BomholtM
  • 22J. SvenssonM
  • 6M. KjøløM
  • 30M. SoboczynskiF
  • 35E. CeïdeF
Substitutes
  • 3T. SolheimD
  • 12R. SandbergG
  • 8I. FossumM
  • 14J. Reitan-SundeF
  • 9D. IslamovićF
  • 20J. BárðarsonM
  • 15J. MortensenD
Coach: Freyr Alexandersson

Form going into Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg

Sarpsborg 08 FF

Eliteserien

  • W4-2away to Aalesund11 October 2026

Rosenborg

Eliteserien

  • D1-1Sandefjord10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Sarpsborg 08 FF2687113242-1031
3Rosenborg2614485332+2146

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg

  • 12 April 2026Rosenborg 2–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
  • 5 October 2025Rosenborg 2–3 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
  • 18 July 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–2 RosenborgEliteserien
  • 25 June 2025Rosenborg 2–2 Sarpsborg 08 FFNM Cupen
  • 23 November 2024Rosenborg 1–1 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien

Leading scorers: Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg

Sarpsborg 08 FF

No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.

Rosenborg

GoalsAssists

  • Amin Chiakha184

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rosenborg won 3–0 at Sarpsborg 08 FF. The model had made a win for Rosenborg its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Aslak Fonn Witry 29' for Rosenborg, Adrian Nilsen Pereira 36' for Rosenborg, Jonas Sogaard Mortensen 90+7' for Rosenborg. On expected goals it finished 0.95–1.88.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sarpsborg 08 FF a 1.7% chance to finish in the top four: 3.5% after a win, under 1% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.

For Rosenborg the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 57.1% going in: 69.9% after a win, 52.8% after a draw, 45.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.9%, 12.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sarpsborg 08 FF v Rosenborg has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 32% / 28% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 34% / 26% / 40%: the biggest move is Sarpsborg 08 FF's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Sarpsborg 08 FF win34%▲ +2
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Rosenborg win40%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.