7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Morton vs Stenhousemuir Championship prediction & result

Cappielow Park, Greenock
Referee: R. Hardie
Full time4 – 3

Final score: Morton 4-3 Stenhousemuir.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Morton, 27% draw, 37% Stenhousemuir — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Stenhousemuir at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Morton94%Draw6%Stenhousemuir0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽D. Borso
7'
M. Garrity
9'
I. Wilson
11'
⚽D. Borsoassist: C. Sandilands
17'
C. Okike
27'
28'
⚽D. Carrick
🔁H. Cochraneout: C. Cupps
29'
33'
⚽E. O'Reilly
D. Borso
41'
46'
⚽F. Robson
⚽D. Borso
51'
58'
🔁C. Penmanout: R. Meechan
🔁M. Garrityout: Z. Robinson
72'
75'
S. Young
⚽D. Borsoassist: C. Sandilands
76'
77'
🔁G. Stevensonout: L. Hodgkiss
84'
🔁D. Carrickout: H. Kargbo
G. Gillespie
87'
🔁C. Sandilandsout: J. Gorman
89'
🔁D. Borsoout: S. Bashir
89'

Line-ups

Morton
  • 1E. Harrison
  • 2C. Ballantyne
  • 5P. Croker
  • 3J. Longridge
  • 6C. Okike
  • 21G. Gillespie
  • 27I. Wilson
  • 20C. Sandilands
  • 47H. Cochrane
  • 7M. Garrity
  • 12D. Borso
Substitutes
  • 31B. Kinnear
  • 4C. Cupps
  • 9J. Gorman
  • 14Z. Robinson
  • 17S. Bashir
  • 25M. Carse
  • 28L. Murphy
  • 35D. Black
Coach: Gary Miller
Stenhousemuir
  • 1D. Jamieson
  • 19S. Bright
  • 4G. Buchanan
  • 5S. Young
  • 15D. Carrick
  • 17M. Anderson
  • 8F. Robson
  • 28C. Penman
  • 7E. O'Reilly
  • 20G. Stevenson
  • 11L. O'Donnell
Substitutes
  • 2R. Meechan
  • 10A. Shinnie
  • 14K. Bilham
  • 21L. Hodgkiss
  • 22H. Kargbo
  • 26N. Jamieson
  • 34R. Hemfrey
  • 36L. Lloyd
  • 37O. MacIntyre
Coach: Marvin Bartley

Form going into Morton vs Stenhousemuir

Morton

Championship

  • W3-2away to Partick31 October 2026
  • W2-0Queen's Park17 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Arbroath10 October 2026

Stenhousemuir

Championship

  • L0-3Livingston30 October 2026
  • L0-1Dunfermline27 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Partick24 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Scotland Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Morton144191625-913
2Stenhousemuir158251816+226

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Morton vs Stenhousemuir

  • 8 August 2026Stenhousemuir 2–0 MortonChampionship
  • 17 January 2026Stenhousemuir 4–0 MortonFA Cup
  • 15 July 2025Morton 3–0 StenhousemuirLeague Cup
  • 28 June 2022Stenhousemuir 0–1 MortonFriendlies Clubs
  • 21 July 2018Morton 2–0 StenhousemuirLeague Cup

The result against the call

Morton beat Stenhousemuir 4–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Stenhousemuir at 37% and given a win for Morton 36%. The goals: D. Borso 7' for Morton, D. Borso 17' for Morton, D. Carrick 28' for Stenhousemuir, E. O'Reilly 33' for Stenhousemuir, F. Robson 46' for Stenhousemuir, D. Borso 51' for Morton, D. Borso 76' for Morton. Sent off: C. Okike (Morton) 27'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Morton a 44.8% chance to finish in the bottom two: 38.6% after a win, 47.4% after a draw, 50.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.6%, 6.2 points lower than before the match.

For Stenhousemuir the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 36.1% going in: 42.4% after a win, 35.3% after a draw, 29.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.8%, 6.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Morton v Stenhousemuir has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 23% / 26% / 51% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 36% / 27% / 37%: the biggest move is Stenhousemuir's chance of winning, down 14 points.

  1. Morton win36%▲ +13
  2. Draw27%▲ +1
  3. Stenhousemuir win37%▼ −14

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.