Inverness CT vs Livingston Championship prediction & result
Final score: Inverness CT 1-1 Livingston.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Inverness CT, 26% draw, 36% Livingston — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Inverness CT at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1R. Munro
- 2C. MacLeod
- 6D. Devine
- 5R. Savage
- 4G. Shinnie
- 8A. Mackinnon
- 7P. Allan
- 10D. Wotherspoon
- 35A. Stewart
- 9L. Stewart
- 36A. Bavidge
- 21L. Ross
- 3N. Boutin
- 12D. MacKay
- 15K. Smith
- 16R. Duncan
- 17L. Sole
- 19M. Bates
- 20D. E. Osong
- 26R. MacGregor
- 28J. Prior
- 22J. Doherty
- 23B. Kabongolo
- 5R. McGowan
- 26C. Montano
- 20E. Danso
- 39L. Polworth
- 6A. Denholm
- 8S. Pittman
- 17S. May
- 9R. Muirhead
- 14J. Hamilton
- 4J. Wilkie
- 10S. Nicholson
- 15C. MacPherson
- 16C. Palmer
- 19B. van Hoeven
- 25B. Anderson
- 27G. Carey
- 30S. Blaney
Form going into Inverness CT vs Livingston
Inverness CT
Championship
- L1-5away to Dunfermline31 October 2026
- W2-0away to Raith Rovers24 October 2026
- W2-0Arbroath17 October 2026
Livingston
Championship
- W3-0away to Stenhousemuir30 October 2026
- W1-0Arbroath24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Dunfermline17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Scotland Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Inverness CT | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| 5 | Livingston | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Inverness CT vs Livingston
- 19 September 2026Livingston 2–2 Inverness CTChampionship
- 12 October 2024Livingston 2–2 Inverness CTChallenge Cup
- 11 February 2023Livingston 0–3 Inverness CTFA Cup
- 12 July 2022Livingston 1–2 Inverness CTLeague Cup
- 8 February 2020Inverness CT 1–0 LivingstonFA Cup
- 24 April 2018Livingston 0–1 Inverness CTChampionship
The result against the call
Inverness CT and Livingston drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Inverness CT at 38% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Stewart 65' for Inverness CT, C. Montano 72' for Livingston.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Inverness CT a 35.5% chance to finish in the top four: 41.9% after a win, 33.3% after a draw, 28.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 33.3%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.
For Livingston the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 71.2% going in: 79.1% after a win, 72.1% after a draw, 64.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 72.1%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Inverness CT v Livingston has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 45% / 26% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 38% / 26% / 36%: the biggest move is Inverness CT's chance of winning, down 7 points.
- Inverness CT win38%▼ −7
- Draw26%=
- Livingston win36%▲ +7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.