Fulham vs Newcastle Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Fulham 1-1 Newcastle.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Fulham, 28% draw, 31% Newcastle — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Fulham at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fulham vs Newcastle
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. LenoG
- 21T. CastagneD
- 22D. AffengruberD
- 3C. BasseyD
- 33A. RobinsonD
- 16S. BergeM
- 19S. CharlesM
- 14Oscar BobbM
- 24Joshua KingM
- 17A. IwobiM
- 7Gonzalo GarcíaF
- 9Rodrigo MunizF
- 15H. LarssonM
- 20Manuel ÁngelM
- 11KevinF
- 8César PalaciosM
- 30R. SessegnonM
- 5J. AndersenD
- 2K. TeteD
- 23B. LecomteG
- 21L. HorníčekG
- 37A. DedićD
- 12M. ThiawD
- 33D. BurnD
- 3L. HallD
- 14Sean SteurM
- 6Nico GonzálezM
- 23J. MurphyM
- 9Y. WissaM
- 11H. BarnesM
- 10W. OsulaF
- 19A. ElangaF
- 20M. Fernandez-PardoF
- 1N. PopeG
- 2T. LivramentoD
- 4S. BotmanD
- 5F. SchärD
- 17B. TouréF
- 28J. WillockM
- 67L. MileyM
Form going into Fulham vs Newcastle
Fulham
Premier League
- D1-1away to Aston Villa31 October 2026
- W1-0away to Coventry24 October 2026
- W1-0Hull City17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Ipswich10 October 2026
Newcastle
Premier League
- L0-1Everton2 November 2026
- W2-0away to Crystal Palace25 October 2026
- L0-1Aston Villa17 October 2026
- L1-4away to Coventry12 October 2026
What these results say
- Fulham scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Fulham had two goals or fewer.
- Newcastle failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Newcastle conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Newcastle had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fulham vs Newcastle
- 24 May 2026Fulham 2–0 NewcastlePremier League
- 17 December 2025Newcastle 2–1 FulhamLeague Cup
- 25 October 2025Newcastle 2–1 FulhamPremier League
- 1 February 2025Newcastle 1–2 FulhamPremier League
- 21 September 2024Fulham 3–1 NewcastlePremier League
- 6 April 2024Fulham 0–1 NewcastlePremier League
The result against the call
Fulham and Newcastle drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Fulham at 41% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jacob Murphy 80' for Newcastle, Rodrigo Muniz 83' for Fulham. On expected goals it finished 0.70–1.09.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fulham a 21.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 15.1% after a win, 23.8% after a draw, 26.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 23.8%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.
For Newcastle the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 19.0% going in: 13.4% after a win, 18.3% after a draw, 22.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 18.3%, 0.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.