7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Arsenal vs Hull City Premier League prediction & result

Emirates Stadium, London
Referee: Farai Hallam
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Arsenal 1-0 Hull City.

Before kick-off the model made it 64% Arsenal, 23% draw, 13% Hull City — fair odds of 1.56, 4.35 and 7.69.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Arsenal at 64%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Arsenal98%Draw2%Hull City0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

34'
Lewie Coyle
•Kai Havertz
43'
48'
Lucas Gourna-Douath
54'
Sergej Jakirovic
60'
🔁Mohamed Ali Choout: Joe Gelhardt
61'
🔁Lewie Coyleout: Brooke Norton-Cuffy
61'
Brooke Norton-Cuffy
🔁Declan Riceout: Mikel Merino
63'
🔁Kai Havertzout: Viktor Gyökeres
63'
🔁Christos Tzolisout: Eberechi Eze
69'
🔁Riccardo Calafioriout: Piero Hincapié
69'
69'
🔁Semi Ajayiout: Lucas Herrington
⚽Martin Odegaard
72'
75'
Elliot Stroud
75'
🔁Elliot Stroudout: Ryan Giles
75'
🔁Tim Iroegbunamout: Christos Mouzakitis
87'
Nobel Mendy
🔁Bruno Guimarãesout: Martín Zubimendi
89'

Match stats — Arsenal vs Hull City

67%Possession33%
21Shots7
10On target2
7Corners4
1.12xG0.36

Goals against chances

Arsenal1 from 1.12 xGabout what the chances were worth
Hull City0 from 0.36 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Arsenal 4-2-3-1
  • 1David RayaG
  • 12J. TimberD
  • 15E. KonsaD
  • 6Gabriel MagalhãesD
  • 33R. CalafioriD
  • 39Bruno GuimarãesM
  • 41D. RiceM
  • 20N. MaduekeM
  • 8M. ØdegaardM
  • 17C. TzolisM
  • 29K. HavertzF
Substitutes
  • 36Martín ZubimendiM
  • 23Mikel MerinoM
  • 14V. GyökeresF
  • 10E. EzeM
  • 13KepaG
  • 4B. WhiteD
  • 3Cristhian MosqueraD
  • 5P. HincapiéD
  • 49M. Lewis-SkellyD
Coach: Mikel Arteta
Hull City 5-3-2
  • 19K. TzolakisG
  • 2L. CoyleD
  • 6S. AjayiD
  • 15J. EganD
  • 32N. MendyD
  • 21E. StroudD
  • 42T. IroegbunamM
  • 29L. Gourna-DouathM
  • 27R. SlaterM
  • 50M. ChoF
  • 9O. McBurnieF
Substitutes
  • 3R. GilesD
  • 22L. HerringtonD
  • 7S. ThomasF
  • 11J. GelhardtF
  • 14J. Hjertø-DahlM
  • 18B. Norton-CuffyD
  • 36C. MouzakitisM
  • 1J. ButlandG
  • 47R. VazF
Coach: S. Jakirović

Form going into Arsenal vs Hull City

Arsenal

Premier League

  • W1-0away to Liverpool1 November 2026
  • W2-0Everton24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Nottingham Forest18 October 2026
  • W2-1Leeds10 October 2026

Hull City

Premier League

  • D2-2Ipswich31 October 2026
  • D1-1Brentford25 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Fulham17 October 2026
  • D2-2Everton11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Arsenal won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Arsenal scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Arsenal kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Hull City did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Hull City conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Hull City scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Arsenal10901155+1027
13Hull City102531111011

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Arsenal vs Hull City

  • 11 February 2017Arsenal 2–0 Hull CityPremier League
  • 17 September 2016Hull City 1–4 ArsenalPremier League
  • 8 March 2016Hull City 0–4 ArsenalFA Cup
  • 20 February 2016Arsenal 0–0 Hull CityFA Cup
  • 4 May 2015Hull City 1–3 ArsenalPremier League
  • 4 January 2015Arsenal 2–0 Hull CityFA Cup

The full Arsenal vs Hull City record →

Leading scorers: Arsenal and Hull City

Arsenal

GoalsAssists

  • K. Havertz30
  • M. Ødegaard30

Hull City

GoalsAssists

  • M. Belloumi32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Arsenal beat Hull City 1–0. The model had made a win for Arsenal its most likely outcome, at 64%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Martin Odegaard 72' for Arsenal. On expected goals it finished 1.12–0.36.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Arsenal a 61.8% chance to win the league: 64.0% after a win, 56.9% after a draw, 54.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 64.0%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.

For Hull City the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 11.8% going in: 6.3% after a win, 10.5% after a draw, 12.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.7%, 0.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Arsenal v Hull City has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 61% / 25% / 14% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 64% / 23% / 13%: the biggest move is Arsenal's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Arsenal win64%▲ +3
  2. Draw23%▼ −2
  3. Hull City win13%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.