Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Feyenoord 1-1 Fortuna Sittard.
Before kick-off the model made it 68% Feyenoord, 19% draw, 13% Fortuna Sittard — fair odds of 1.47, 5.26 and 7.69.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Feyenoord at 68%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. ErnstG
- 26G. ReadD
- 4T. WatanabeD
- 35Mika MàrmolD
- 16Javi LópezD
- 8G. ZechiëlM
- 34C. VanhoutteM
- 28O. TarghallineM
- 23A. Hadj-MoussaF
- 19Nacho FerriF
- 10L. ValenteF
- 39L. BossinG
- 20M. DeijlD
- 50Theodoros DelianidisM
- 27G. DiarraF
- 33F. KastenmeierG
- 24T. KraaijeveldM
- 57J. SchakenF
- 14S. SteijnM
- 32T. WesselsD
- 31M. BranderhorstG
- 12Ivo PintoD
- 6S. van OtteleD
- 3Rodrigo GuthD
- 28Justin Quincy HubnerD
- 8J. DahlhausD
- 52M. IhattarenM
- 9A. DescotteM
- 23P. BrittijnM
- 22Shiloh Kiesar ’t ZandM
- 25L. ZeefuikF
- 35K. van BurgstedenM
- 15N. de GrootD
- 2S. WylinD
- 24D. SinkgravenD
- 14S. SimonsM
- 33K. ReitmaierG
- 7K. PetersonF
- 4Iván MárquezD
- 1L. KoopmansG
Form going into Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard
Feyenoord
Eredivisie
- D1-1away to PSV Eindhoven25 October 2026
- W4-3away to Telstar17 October 2026
- W2-0AZ Alkmaar10 October 2026
Fortuna Sittard
Eredivisie
- W1-0Excelsior25 October 2026
- D2-2away to NEC Nijmegen18 October 2026
- D1-1Twente10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 36 | 17 | +19 | 25 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard
Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard have met 7 times in the records we hold, Feyenoord has won 4 of them to Fortuna Sittard's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Feyenoord on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | 4 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 3 |
| Fortuna Sittard | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 12 goals, an average of 1.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
EredivisieFeyenoord 1–1 Fortuna Sittard - 3 May 2026
EredivisieFortuna Sittard 1–2 Feyenoord - 17 Sep 2025
EredivisieFeyenoord 2–0 Fortuna Sittard - 12 Apr 2025
EredivisieFortuna Sittard 0–2 Feyenoord - 30 Nov 2024
EredivisieFeyenoord 1–1 Fortuna Sittard - 14 Apr 2024
EredivisieFortuna Sittard 0–1 Feyenoord - 13 Aug 2023
EredivisieFeyenoord 0–0 Fortuna Sittard
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Feyenoord's attack rates 62% above Fortuna Sittard's, and Feyenoord concede 16% fewer than Fortuna Sittard. That gives Feyenoord the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | 1.23 | 0.93 |
| Fortuna Sittard | 0.76 | 1.11 |
Leading scorers: Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard
Feyenoord
GoalsAssists
- A. Hadj-Moussa72
- Nacho Ferri63
- G. Zechiël54
Fortuna Sittard
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Feyenoord at 68% and given a draw 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Luciano Valente 59' for Feyenoord, Shiloh 't Zand 86' for Fortuna Sittard. On expected goals it finished 2.64–0.96.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Feyenoord a 45.6% chance to finish top of the regular season: 48.0% after a win, 41.7% after a draw, 35.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 41.7%, 3.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Feyenoord v Fortuna Sittard has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 71% / 17% / 12% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 68% / 19% / 13%: the biggest move is Feyenoord's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Feyenoord win68%▼ −3
- Draw19%▲ +2
- Fortuna Sittard win13%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.