22 August 2026, 23:30 UTC

New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire Major League Soccer prediction & result

Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison
Full time1 – 1

Final score: New York Red Bulls 1-1 Chicago Fire.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% New York Red Bulls, 24% draw, 34% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 2.38, 4.17 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts New York Red Bulls at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire

New York Red Bulls

  • L0-1Nashville SC19 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Atlanta United FC15 August 2026
  • W3-2Orlando City SC1 August 2026
  • L0-2Charlotte25 July 2026
  • L1-3away to Philadelphia Union22 July 2026

Chicago Fire

  • W2-1away to Orlando City SC19 August 2026
  • W2-1Portland Timbers16 August 2026
  • W2-1Charlotte2 August 2026
  • L1-3away to New York City FC25 July 2026
  • L2-3away to Inter Miami22 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire

  • 9 May 2026Chicago Fire 1–3 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
  • 27 July 2025Chicago Fire 1–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
  • 5 April 2025New York Red Bulls 2–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 15 September 2024Chicago Fire 2–1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
  • 13 April 2024New York Red Bulls 0–0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 27 January 2024Chicago Fire 2–2 New York Red BullsFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: New York Red Bulls and Chicago Fire

New York Red Bulls

No leading scorers listed yet.

Chicago Fire

  • H. Cuypers13 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.