29 August 2026, 20:30 UTC

Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire Major League Soccer prediction & result

Lumen Field, Seattle
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Seattle Sounders 2-2 Chicago Fire.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Seattle Sounders, 29% draw, 31% Chicago Fire — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Seattle Sounders at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Seattle Sounders4%Draw93%Chicago Fire3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽D. Joveljicassist: S. Gomez
12'
38'
⚽M. Haile-Selassieassist: R. Lewandowski
⚽D. Joveljicassist: A. Rusnak
48'
Snyder Brunell
51'
🔁S. Brunellout: C. Roldan
57'
63'
🔁R. Lodout: P. Dithejane
🔁A. Roldanout: H. Dotson
69'
🔁S. Gomezout: J. Morris
69'
73'
🔁J. Deanout: S. Oregel
73'
🔁A. Saletrosout: J. Bamba
81'
⚽R. Lewandowskiassist: P. Dithejane
88'
🔁P. Zinckernagelout: L. Barroso

Match stats — Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire

44%Possession56%
11Shots20
3On target11
4Corners7
0.87xG2.02

Goals against chances

Seattle Sounders2 from 0.87 xGmore than the chances were worth
Chicago Fire2 from 2.02 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1
  • 26A. ThomasG
  • 85K. Kossa-RienziD
  • 20Kim Kee-HeeD
  • 39S. HawkinsD
  • 5NouhouD
  • 37S. BrunellM
  • 16A. RoldanM
  • 90S. GomezM
  • 11A. RusnakM
  • 14P. RothrockM
  • 9D. JoveljicF
Substitutes
  • 24S. FreiG
  • 35A. LopezD
  • 4R. SailorD
  • 31H. DotsonM
  • 7C. RoldanM
  • 13J. MorrisF
  • 19D. MusovskiF
Coach: Brian Schmetzer
Chicago Fire 4-3-3
  • 1C. BradyG
  • 24J. DeanD
  • 5S. RogersD
  • 3J. ElliottD
  • 15A. GutmanD
  • 6A. SaletrosM
  • 42D. D'AvillaM
  • 17R. LodM
  • 11P. ZinckernagelF
  • 9R. LewandowskiF
  • 7M. Haile-SelassieF
Substitutes
  • 44J. CohenG
  • 16J. WatermanD
  • 22M. PinedaD
  • 2L. BarrosoD
  • 14V. RadojevicD
  • 47S. WilliamsM
  • 35S. OregelM
  • 19J. BambaF
  • 12P. DithejaneF
Coach: Mario Barcena

Form going into Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire

Seattle Sounders

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to FC Cincinnati22 August 2026
  • L1-2Austin20 August 2026
  • L0-2Vancouver Whitecaps17 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Portland Timbers2 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Philadelphia Union25 July 2026

Chicago Fire

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to New York Red Bulls22 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Orlando City SC19 August 2026
  • W2-1Portland Timbers16 August 2026
  • W2-1Charlotte2 August 2026
  • L1-3away to New York City FC25 July 2026

What these results say

  • Seattle Sounders did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Seattle Sounders conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Chicago Fire scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Chicago Fire conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Chicago Fire.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Seattle Sounders341210124446-246
4Chicago Fire34167116454+1055

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire

  • 30 June 2024Seattle Sounders 2–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 17 July 2022Chicago Fire 1–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
  • 14 July 2020Chicago Fire 2–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
  • 1 March 2020Seattle Sounders 2–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
  • 16 March 2019Chicago Fire 2–4 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
  • 24 June 2018Seattle Sounders 1–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer

The result against the call

Seattle Sounders and Chicago Fire drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Seattle Sounders at 40% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: D. Joveljic 12' for Seattle Sounders, M. Haile-Selassie 38' for Chicago Fire, D. Joveljic 48' for Seattle Sounders, R. Lewandowski 81' for Chicago Fire. On expected goals it finished 0.87–2.02.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.