17 October 2026, 11:30 UTC

Watford vs Charlton Championship prediction & result

Vicarage Road, Watford
Referee: Thomas Bramall
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Watford 2-0 Charlton.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Watford, 32% draw, 35% Charlton — fair odds of 3.03, 3.13 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Charlton at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Watford97%Draw3%Charlton0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
Dan McNamara
Myron Boadu
17'
Iker Bravo
31'
32'
Oliver Skipp
44'
Tyreece Campbell
45'
🔁Oliver Skippout: Alan Mwamba
47'
Conor Coventry
⚽Luca Kjerrumgaard
58'
62'
🔁Conor Coventryout: sonny carey
63'
🔁Karlan Grantout: Harvey Knibbs
63'
🔁Dan McNamaraout: Charlie Kelman
🔁Krépin Diattaout: Jordan Zemura
66'
🔁Myron Boaduout: Martin Payero
66'
🔁Marc Bolaout: Branimir Mlacic
76'
🔁Luca Kjerrumgaardout: Mamadou Doumbia
76'
77'
🔁Tyreece Campbellout: Millenic Alli
Jordan Zemura
79'
🔁Iker Bravoout: Rocco Vata
86'
90+2'
Alan Mwamba
⚽Jordan Zemuraassist: Rocco Vata
90+4'

Match stats — Watford vs Charlton

51%Possession49%
22Shots14
10On target3
4Corners3
2.87xG1.31

Goals against chances

Watford2 from 2.87 xGless than the chances were worth
Charlton0 from 1.31 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Watford 5-3-2
  • 1F. RavagliaG
  • 15K. DiattaD
  • 4K. KebenD
  • 6M. PollockD
  • 3S. CoulibalyD
  • 16M. BolaD
  • 39E. KayembeM
  • 5H. KyprianouM
  • 17Iker BravoM
  • 9L. KjerrumgaardF
  • 10M. BoaduF
Substitutes
  • 20M. DoumbiaF
  • 7O. MaammaF
  • 45S. MavididiF
  • 29Branimir MlačićD
  • 26D. BachmannG
  • 21Amin NabizadaF
  • 22M. PayeroM
  • 11R. VataF
  • 33J. ZemuraD
Coach: A. Dionisi
Charlton 3-4-2-1
  • 13A. OkonkwoG
  • 2K. RamsayD
  • 5L. JonesD
  • 12Billy Dawson KoumetioD
  • 20D. McNamaraM
  • 34O. SkippM
  • 6C. CoventryM
  • 18I. MesíkM
  • 9K. Ahearne-GrantM
  • 7T. CampbellM
  • 11M. LeaburnF
Substitutes
  • 19M. AlliF
  • 17A. BellD
  • 44Tyler BindonD
  • 14S. CareyM
  • 23C. KelmanF
  • 8H. KnibbsM
  • 25W. MannionG
  • 33Micah MbickF
  • 32A. MwambaD
Coach: N. Jones

Form going into Watford vs Charlton

Watford

All competitions we cover

  • L1-5away to Cardiff13 October 2026
  • L0-4Burnley10 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Bristol City18 September 2026
  • L1-2Stoke City12 September 2026
  • W2-1Preston8 September 2026

Charlton

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Burnley13 October 2026
  • D1-1Bristol City10 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Cardiff19 September 2026
  • D0-0Portsmouth12 September 2026
  • D0-0QPR9 September 2026

What these results say

  • Watford conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Watford failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Watford had three goals or more.
  • Charlton did not win any of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Watford154381323-1015
19Charlton154561323-1017

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Watford vs Charlton

  • 6 April 2026Watford 1–1 CharltonChampionship
  • 9 August 2025Charlton 1–0 WatfordChampionship
  • 17 January 2015Watford 5–0 CharltonChampionship
  • 13 September 2014Charlton 1–0 WatfordChampionship
  • 29 April 2014Charlton 3–1 WatfordChampionship
  • 14 September 2013Watford 1–1 CharltonChampionship

The full Watford vs Charlton record →

The result against the call

Watford beat Charlton 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Charlton at 35% and given a win for Watford 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Luca Kjerrumgaard 58' for Watford, Jordan Zemura 90+4' for Watford. On expected goals it finished 2.87–1.31.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Watford a 68.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 62.3% after a win, 68.7% after a draw, 74.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.3%, 6 points lower than before the match.

For Charlton the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 14.7% going in: 10.4% after a win, 15.3% after a draw, 17.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.7%, 3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Watford v Charlton has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 38% / 32% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 33% / 32% / 35%: the biggest move is Watford's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Watford win33%▼ −5
  2. Draw32%=
  3. Charlton win35%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.