Norwich vs Southampton Championship prediction & result
Final score: Norwich 0-1 Southampton.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Norwich, 25% draw, 42% Southampton — fair odds of 3.03, 4.00 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Southampton at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Norwich vs Southampton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32D. GrimshawG
- 3J. StaceyD
- 15Ruairi McConvilleD
- 33J. CórdobaD
- 14B. ChriseneD
- 16Jacob WrightM
- 7P. MattssonM
- 11A. BrooksM
- 20A. Ben SlimaneM
- 29O. SchwartauM
- 30M. KvistgaardenF
- 17A. CrnacF
- 6H. DarlingD
- 26S. FieldM
- 25P. MaghomaM
- 40C. AnsenG
- 12L. MahovoD
- 24J. MakamaF
- 49A. MusabaF
- 13D. YongwaD
- 1Daniel PeretzG
- 6Z. AbbottD
- 5J. StephensD
- 13K. SchlotterbeckD
- 3R. ManningD
- 30J. Ward-ProwseM
- 4F. DownesM
- 27K. MatsukiM
- 10F. AzazM
- 23S. EdozieM
- 11L. DobbinF
- 14J. BreeD
- 18T. FellowsM
- 8C. JanderM
- 9C. LarinF
- 25G. LongG
- 28D. MubamaF
- 7Léo ScienzaM
- 34WelingtonD
- 15N. Wood-GordonD
Form going into Norwich vs Southampton
Norwich
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Swansea10 October 2026
- L3-4Bolton20 September 2026
- L3-4away to Middlesbrough12 September 2026
- W2-1Birmingham9 September 2026
- W3-1away to Sheffield Utd5 September 2026
Southampton
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Portsmouth11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Wrexham19 September 2026
- W4-1Bristol City12 September 2026
- W3-1Swansea8 September 2026
- D1-1away to Lincoln5 September 2026
What these results say
- Norwich scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Norwich conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Norwich had three goals or more.
- Southampton scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Southampton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Southampton.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 24 | +8 | 21 |
| 7 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 15 | +14 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Norwich vs Southampton
- 18 March 2026Southampton 1–0 NorwichChampionship
- 13 December 2025Norwich 2–1 SouthamptonChampionship
- 26 August 2025Norwich 0–3 SouthamptonLeague Cup
- 1 January 2024Norwich 1–1 SouthamptonChampionship
- 12 August 2023Southampton 4–4 NorwichChampionship
Leading scorers: Norwich and Southampton
Norwich
GoalsAssists
- M. Touré50
Southampton
GoalsAssists
- C. Larin70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Southampton won 1–0 at Norwich. The model had made a win for Southampton its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Kuryu Matsuki 54' for Southampton. On expected goals it finished 1.26–2.16.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Norwich a 9.9% chance to finish in the top four: 12.7% after a win, 8.6% after a draw, 7.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.6%, 2.3 points lower than before the match.
For Southampton the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 55.0% going in: 59.5% after a win, 53.1% after a draw, 50.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 59.5%, 4.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Norwich v Southampton has moved
First published on 30 Sep at 33% / 27% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 33% / 25% / 42%: the biggest move is Southampton's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Norwich win33%=
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Southampton win42%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.