Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd Championship prediction & result
Final score: Portsmouth 3-2 Sheffield Utd.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Portsmouth, 29% draw, 35% Sheffield Utd — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Portsmouth at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1N. SchmidG
- 22Z. SwansonD
- 5R. PooleD
- 55M. DiaD
- 16J. MeghomaD
- 7M. PackM
- 37I. MohamedM
- 11A. KamaraM
- 10A. SegecicM
- 25R. Kavuma McQueenM
- 29M. MilovanovićF
- 38E. AdamsM
- 21K. AndersonM
- 27O. BaileyM
- 31D. BielicaG
- 9C. BishopF
- 24T. DevlinM
- 32E. KennyM
- 19R. SheinM
- 30B. KillipG
- 1M. CooperG
- 8H. ChoudhuryD
- 5J. TangangaD
- 15L. KitchingD
- 3S. McCallumD
- 19T. ChongM
- 42Sydie PeckM
- 7J. RothwellM
- 22B. BreretonM
- 9T. CannonF
- 45P. BamfordF
- 14H. BurrowsD
- 23T. CampbellF
- 17A. DaviesG
- 11R. DonovanM
- 25M. McGuinnessD
- 27K. PhillipsM
- 44J. RiedewaldM
- 10J. AyewF
- 4O. ArblasterM
Form going into Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd
Portsmouth
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Southampton11 October 2026
- D2-2Blackburn19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Charlton12 September 2026
- W2-0Cardiff5 September 2026
- L0-2Derby1 September 2026
Sheffield Utd
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Lincoln10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Stoke City19 September 2026
- L0-1Wolves13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Blackburn8 September 2026
- L1-3Norwich5 September 2026
What these results say
- Portsmouth failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Portsmouth had two goals or fewer.
- Sheffield Utd scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sheffield Utd conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sheffield Utd had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 22 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd
- 14 February 2026Portsmouth 0–1 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 26 November 2025Sheffield Utd 3–0 PortsmouthChampionship
- 8 February 2025Sheffield Utd 2–1 PortsmouthChampionship
- 28 September 2024Portsmouth 0–0 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 20 April 2013Portsmouth 3–0 Sheffield UtdLeague One
Leading scorers: Portsmouth and Sheffield Utd
Portsmouth
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Sheffield Utd
GoalsAssists
- P. Bamford51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Portsmouth beat Sheffield Utd 3–2. The model had made a win for Portsmouth its most likely outcome, at 36%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Zak Swanson 41' for Portsmouth, Adrian Segecic 54' for Portsmouth, Japhet Tanganga 59' for Sheffield Utd, Thomas Cannon 67' for Sheffield Utd, Ebou Adams 89' for Portsmouth. Sent off: Hamza Choudhury (Sheffield Utd) 44'. On expected goals it finished 2.25–2.03.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Portsmouth a 15.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 11.5% after a win, 15.7% after a draw, 17.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.5%, 3.6 points lower than before the match.
For Sheffield Utd the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 10.8% going in: 13.3% after a win, 10.2% after a draw, 8.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.1%, 2.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Portsmouth v Sheffield Utd has moved
First published on 30 Sep at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 36% / 29% / 35%: the biggest move is Portsmouth's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Portsmouth win36%▼ −2
- Draw29%=
- Sheffield Utd win35%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.