14 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

QPR vs Derby Championship prediction & result

Loftus Road, London
Referee: Matthew Corlett
Full time4 – 1

Final score: QPR 4-1 Derby.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% QPR, 29% draw, 28% Derby — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

QPR at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

QPR99%Draw1%Derby0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
🔁Sondre Langasout: Ryan Nyambe
⚽Alfie Lloydassist: Boy Kemper
18'
⚽Nicolas Madsen (pen)
22'
24'
D. Ozoh
28'
John Eustace
44'
Sammie Szmodics
⚽Harvey Vale
45'
45'
🔁D. Ozohout: Lewis Travis
45'
🔁Mohammed Fuseiniout: Henrik Wendel Meister
56'
Henrik Wendel Meister
Harvey Vale
57'
Glen Kamara
60'
🔁Rayan Jawad Kolliout: Richard Kone
62'
🔁Alfie Lloydout: Jonathan Varane
62'
🔁Harvey Valeout: Kwame Poku
62'
63'
🔁Carlton Morrisout: Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
⚽Paul Smythassist: Nicolas Madsen
68'
70'
🔁Sammie Szmodicsout: Filip Bilbija
🔁Boy Kemperout: Amadou Salif Mbengue
72'
🔁Paul Smythout: Leon Scarlett
77'
90+10'
⚽Lars-Jørgen Salvesen

Match stats — QPR vs Derby

48%Possession52%
9Shots15
7On target6
1Corners3
1.6xG0.93

Goals against chances

QPR4 from 1.60 xGmore than the chances were worth
Derby1 from 0.93 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

QPR 4-2-3-1
  • 1P. CharlesG
  • 2K. AdamsonD
  • 3J. DunneD
  • 5R. EdwardsD
  • 12B. KemperD
  • 24N. MadsenM
  • 18G. KamaraM
  • 11P. SmythM
  • 20H. ValeM
  • 15A. LloydM
  • 26Rayan Jawad KolliF
Substitutes
  • 23I. AlemayehuM
  • 6J. Clarke-SalterD
  • 22R. KoneF
  • 27A. MbengueD
  • 4L. MorrisonD
  • 17K. PokuM
  • 40J. VaraneM
  • 13C. WardG
  • 33Leon ScarlettF
Coach: Julien Stéphan
Derby 4-2-3-1
  • 31J. VickersG
  • 23J. WardD
  • 6S. LangåsD
  • 28D. SandersonD
  • 26R. HedgesD
  • 4D. OzohM
  • 20A. MowattM
  • 16M. FuseiniM
  • 8B. ClarkM
  • 11S. SzmodicsM
  • 9C. MorrisF
Substitutes
  • 10R. BrewsterF
  • 29O. FrauloM
  • 19H. MeisterF
  • 24R. NyambeD
  • 12R. O'DonnellG
  • 15L. SalvesenF
  • 27L. TravisM
  • 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
  • 13F. BilbijaM
Coach: J. Eustace

Form going into QPR vs Derby

QPR

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to West Ham9 October 2026
  • D2-2Preston19 September 2026
  • D1-1away to West Brom12 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Charlton9 September 2026
  • L0-1Middlesbrough5 September 2026

Derby

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Wrexham10 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Burnley19 September 2026
  • L1-2Birmingham12 September 2026
  • L0-1West Brom9 September 2026
  • L0-3away to West Ham5 September 2026

What these results say

  • QPR did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • QPR conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for QPR had two goals or fewer.
  • Derby did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Derby conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8QPR156632418+624
23Derby152491430-1610

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: QPR vs Derby

  • 25 April 2026QPR 2–3 DerbyChampionship
  • 25 October 2025Derby 1–0 QPRChampionship
  • 14 February 2025QPR 4–0 DerbyChampionship
  • 5 October 2024Derby 2–0 QPRChampionship
  • 18 April 2022QPR 1–0 DerbyChampionship

The full QPR vs Derby record →

Leading scorers: QPR and Derby

QPR

GoalsAssists

  • R. Kone51

Derby

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

QPR beat Derby 4–1. The model had made a win for QPR its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Alfie Lloyd 18' for QPR, Nicolas Madsen (penalty) 22' for QPR, Harvey Vale 45' for QPR, Paul Smyth 68' for QPR, Lars-Jørgen Salvesen 90+10' for Derby. On expected goals it finished 1.60–0.93.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave QPR a 6.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.3% after a win, 6.5% after a draw, 7.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.3%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.

For Derby the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 24.7% going in: 18.3% after a win, 23.9% after a draw, 28.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 28.0%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on QPR v Derby has moved

First published on 30 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 43% / 29% / 28%: the biggest move is QPR's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. QPR win43%▲ +2
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Derby win28%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.