25 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce I Liga prediction & result

Itaka Arena, Opole
Referee: P. Pazdecki
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Odra Opole 0-1 Pogoń Siedlce.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Odra Opole, 33% draw, 26% Pogoń Siedlce — fair odds of 2.44, 3.03 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Odra Opole at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Odra Opole0%Draw3%Pogoń Siedlce97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

P. Szysz
19'
49'
⚽M. Rosolek
🔁P. Szyszout: J. Perez
53'
🔁B. Baranskiout: S. Gieroba
53'
🔁Cassioout: M. Nalepa
60'
🔁M. Feliksout: B. Spacil
60'
🔁M. Spychalaout: F. Kupczyk
67'
73'
🔁D. Szuprytowskiout: R. Makowski
73'
🔁C. Demianiukout: M. Marzec
B. Spacil
75'
78'
R. Makowski
83'
🔁S. Kobusinskiout: N. Zielonka
83'
🔁B. Poczobutout: M. Kizyma
89'
E. Dzieciol
90+1'
🔁E. Dzieciolout: S. Szczytniewski
90+5'
S. Szczytniewski

Line-ups

Odra Opole
Coach: Lukasz Tomczyk
Pogoń Siedlce
Coach: Adam Nocon

Form going into Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce

Odra Opole

I Liga

  • L0-3away to Ruch Chorzów16 October 2026
  • W1-0Miedz Legnica11 October 2026

Pogoń Siedlce

I Liga

  • L3-4Stal Rzeszów18 October 2026
  • L1-3Puszcza Niepołomice15 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Odra Opole143381121-1012
10Pogoń Siedlce145451717019

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce

  • 6 February 2026Odra Opole 1–0 Pogoń SiedlceI Liga
  • 3 August 2025Pogoń Siedlce 0–1 Odra OpoleI Liga
  • 8 December 2024Pogoń Siedlce 0–1 Odra OpoleI Liga
  • 28 July 2024Odra Opole 4–1 Pogoń SiedlceI Liga

The result against the call

Pogoń Siedlce won 1–0 at Odra Opole. The model had leaned towards a win for Odra Opole at 41% and given a win for Pogoń Siedlce 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: M. Rosolek 49' for Pogoń Siedlce.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Odra Opole a 29.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 22.0% after a win, 32.4% after a draw, 37.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.1%, 7.9 points higher than before the match.

For Pogoń Siedlce the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 42.5% going in: 32.2% after a win, 41.1% after a draw, 48.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.2%, 10.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Odra Opole v Pogoń Siedlce has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 38% / 36% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 41% / 33% / 26%: the biggest move is Odra Opole's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Odra Opole win41%▲ +3
  2. Draw33%▼ −3
  3. Pogoń Siedlce win26%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.